2023: NIGERIA IN A STALEMATE

I don't think many Nigerians are aware that their nation is in a stalemate. Nigerians are a very religious people, we believe in God but we live like unbelievers, always hopeful, refusing deliberately to see danger ahead. But there is danger lurking. The leaders too, like the led, are all running to buy nomination forms to run for the next election without caring that there may not be any nation to rule, in their language, because they will rather rule than serve. The illicit gains of political office have blinded the leaders, the danger is close by, like a ram they are being led to the slaughter slab and they don't see it. How will they? Within a few weeks the two main parties, All Progressives Party, APC, and Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, have raked in about 20 billion naira while university students are at home because their teachers under the umbrella of their union are on strike. The Academic Staff Union of Universities, ASSU, is more known internationally and in the nation for strikes than for teaching and research, due largely to the government's failure to fund higher education adequately.

What these political office holders brought in to the parties is enough to solve the problems of the universities once and for all. Where did they get the money? Many have not done anything other than hold political office all of their life. What is their salary? Though it is said to be more than the salaries of their counterparts in the advanced democracies of the world, they have no visible means to justify buying nomination forms for 100 million naira each. If anybody doubts that this administration has failed woefully to tame corruption, a promise upon which it came to power in 2015, that doubter should look at the speed with which the over 20 billion was raked in. These political actors are smart by half; many of them have the forms brought for them but Nigerians refuse to be fooled, they heard the voice of Jacob but clearly felt the hands of Esau. How efficient has the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, the corruption taming agent been? The answer is to look at the ease with which this humongous money was raked in. How was this money sourced? Where did they get it? Top of the list of surprises of the presidential nomination drama is the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, Governor, Mr. Godwin Emefiele, whose nomination form was purchased for him by the rice farmers. Remember that Emefiele's CBN is in charge of the Anchor Borrowers programme that gave out single-digit loans to farmers to grow rice in the domestic economy so that the over 300 million dollars spent annually to import and smuggle rice into the country will be saved. Remember also the rumor that many of these farmers are alleged to have grown more rice in their pockets than on the farmlands and that many whose loans are due for repayment are saying they won't repay the loans because it is their gain for supporting President Muhammadu Buhari's election. So unsuccessful is this rice programme that Buhari recently had to secretly open the borders that he closed to encourage and support domestic production. Although local production has reduced imports, Nigerians are hungry because they still can't buy rice at an affordable price.

If Emefiele did that much to enrich the rice farmers, it is alleged, how beautiful it will be for the rice farmers if Emefiele wins the presidency of 2023? But what on earth assured Emefiele that he could be president in Nigeria where Nigerians are under an enslaving economy, no thanks to the CBN under his watch. Who lied to Emefiele that Nigerians are happy with him? Leadership in Nigeria falls easily into delusion. While the people are obviously tired and sick, leaders delude themselves they have not failed. Umaru Dikko of the defunct National Party of Nigeria, NPN, once said there was no poverty yet in Nigerian because Nigerians have not started eating from the dustbin.

Many president hopefuls are plunging into the murky waters of Nigeria's politics oblivious of the dangerous political environment. As things stand, Nigeria is at a stalemate. The North wants to hold on to power, in spite of the fact that President Muhammadu Buhari has been at the helm for seven years now. The North is born to rule and it sees itself as the ordained administrator of the country. How would it let go of power when that is the only thing it thinks it can do well. Yet for all the donkey years the North has held onto power, the region has the worst indices of growth in virtually every aspect of human development. Nigerians are sad about what they did in 2015 bringing Buhari to power. The atmosphere is tense everywhere. The north has lost more to banditry, kidnapping, and Boko Haram terrorism than it lost during the civil war. The East is complaining and it has upped its game by parading the most cerebral candidates to contest the 2023 election. The East will not allow any of its own to play the second fiddle to any president. The southeast wants to be in the driver's seat. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo is supporting this cause which he sees as due. So also is Chief Ayo Adebanjo, National Democratic Coalition, NADECO, chieftain, and Chief Edwin Clark, leader of the Ijaw group who holds that Nigeria will not hold together again if the 2023 president does not come from the south.

Ahmed Bola Tinubu, a man who is seen as a kingmaker in the political terrain is in the race for president and has said that his ambition is lifelong. But will he win the APC nomination? The APC and PDP are watching where their candidate will come from. Both of them have jettisoned their zoning formula on the platform of political expedience. Atiku Abubakar, a serial contender for the presidency is on the list and must run and win. He has been throwing around his huge resources to ensure victory. He does not seem to have any challenger in PDP. The APC fears that Atiku will likely pick the ticket of PDP and if he does, APC will have no option but to pick a northern candidate to fight Atiku for the huge votes from the North. The party affirmed categorically that the 2023 election will be decided by religious and ethnic voting. This thus exposes the unpreparedness of the parties to run on issues and to build the nation. It is unlikely that Tinubu will take kindly to the APC not picking him as the party’s flagbearer. If he is not nominated, Tinubu might withdraw to his constituency in the southwest to join the separatist agitators in the region. If that happens, it will add more fire to the already tense situation in the North. Nobody should think the Indigenous People of Biafra, IPOB, will lower its combat except if it sees one of its own in the Aso Rock.

As it is, the stalemate is very visible and the already tense situation in the country and the political logjam may spark off an intense nationwide political protest.

Tunde Akande is both a Journalist and a Pastor. He earned a Master's degree in Mass Communication from the University of Lagos.