2027: Is Any Storm Approaching?

Either for the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress or the opposition coalition, African Democratic Congress, the 2027 general election is neither a done deal nor a walkover. Olawale Olaleye writes.

Zainab, daughter of AlhajiBubaGaladima, a prominent northern voice, was recently on Mic On, a podcast anchored by SeunOkinbaloye of Channels TV. As part of her submission, she warned: “A storm is coming.” The reference was to the likely response from the north in 2027 and what she had foreseen as a “daughter of the soil”.

Candid, smart, intelligent, progressive, visionary, and unequivocal, Zainab knew exactly what she had hinted at. But the title above is just an adoption of her concern of the current state of play in the north nay the 2027 general election. This intervention has nothing to do with her submission or the interview with Okinbaloye.

It is about the African Democratic Congress (ADC), an existing political party newly adopted by the opposition coalition and the reactions that had since greeted it. If you must espouse the truth without mealy-mouthing, no one but the APC had given the ADC the huge and unsolicited publicity it currently enjoys.

Either out of sheer panic to the development, which they didn’t expect would take off the way it did or a function of some fussy excitement to impress President Bola Tinubu, the responses so far from the corridors of power belie, not just logic but creative narrative and strategic communication. Who alerts his enemy to his weakness in a battle? It oozes naivety, too.

Except renowned political historians could dispute this, it is trite to infer that there’s been no coalition or merger in the nation’s political history that has taken off this way. In a matter of weeks, the coalition brought together top politicians from across the regions, who started meeting in their large numbers from day one and kept increasing each day till they “hired” an existing party, unveiled it and appointed their interim leadership. That’s not some tea party adventure.

First, the ruling APC didn’t think the idea would birth successfully. It had expected a stillbirth. But the moment safe delivery was announced, the response changed. “Oh, it can’t be a healthy baby.” “The child must be suffering some Down syndrome that is still being covered up.” Some even predicted that the baby would die soon.

But no one remembered it was the same fate that the ruling APC suffered at birth. Some of the career political jobbers, who have now switched camps and helped to sell this narrative, were on the other side then. No one gave the APC a chance. Little wonder, some of the politicians, who were originally part of the movement, ran back as a result of the poor rating the APC was then handed.

President Tinubu, who suddenly single-handedly appropriated Muhammadu Buhari’s electoral success, also had reservations about the man. He hardly believed in him. Or, who, again, was alleged to have bought a nomination form for a former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon Aminu Bello Tambuwal, to contest against Buhari before the rest of the pro-Buhari stakeholders shot down the idea as counterproductive and late in the day?

Maybe someday one or two of those who played active roles in the formation of the APC and the emergence of Buhari would talk or write about the alleged lobbying to have the ballot papers for the APC presidential convention printed at some ‘Lagos press’ before they changed plans and had them printed in Dubai.

The ballot papers arrived on the day of the election to the shock of many people with solid security that could not be tampered with. The APC gamble only showed prospect after its Lagos convention, which eventually produced Buhari, was hugely successful.

It is surprising, therefore, that the only thing that appears like the strategy of the ruling party in the current dispensation is the hope that the ADC would implode and its members disagree once a presidential candidate emerges.

This, they reckon, would produce aggrieved parties that would break away like a certain former governor, who became a tool in the hands of the opposition to destroy his own party because delegates made a different choice. Those delegates must be clairvoyant, seeing what the fellow has become today.

While the confidence of the ruling party is good for the optics, it is largely hinged on false premises. The party appears to thrive more on propaganda than evidence-based claims. Of the truth, there seems to be more trouble in the APC paradise than many can imagine in the camp of the ADC. Apart from the panic responses that have so far dotted the space, the alleged attempt to frustrate the unveiling of the party spoke louder than what anyone could dismiss.

Thus, rather than dissipate needless energy on the ADC, the ruling party, after producing a ‘minority president’ with paltry 36.61 per cent electoral success, has to go and fix the current disapproval ratings alleged to be prevalent in many parts of the country.

For instance, in the North West, where the majority of the people still feel short-changed after churning out huge votes for the APC, it would take more than incentivising them to regain their trust. This is politics – the only thing they know and do. It is deeper than dangling carrots. The resentment swirls every day, and no serious party and government should gloss over it.

The APC, by compulsion, must keep an eye on the North East where there is a brewing resentment against it over the alleged plan to drop their son, Vice-President KashimShettima, from the joint presidential ticket in 2027. That this anger is already bringing many of AtikuAbubakar’s political rivals back to him should worry the ruling party.

As a matter of urgency, the APC has to continuously engage with the North Central, which is unhappy that the party and government have not been able to resolve its security crises since the time of Buhari, spanning over ten years. In their case, talk is already considered cheap. They want the result.

It is not certain if the APC could ever do anything to change the fate awaiting it in the Southeast. Maybe that’s not where to even waste time and resources. These Southeast governors? None of them can rein in the voters from that zone. Rely on them at your risk.

The South-south is already giving a mercurial 50-50 vibe. But the deliberately poor and malicious handling of the Rivers State crisis is definitely going to take its toll on the rating of the party and the president. Tinubu showed his hands quite early.

If Rivers deserved an emergency situation because of “two fighting” with near-zero death recorded and in which the president openly took a side, then the president should have carved out and pronounced Benue, Plateau and Borno as states no longer existing in the federation, given the disturbing security situation there.

Whoever witnessed the voting pattern in the southwest, especially in Lagos, must have seen an ultra-civilised voting population in action. Those voters were irrepressible, determined, and knew what they wanted. They were very specific and unequivocal.

It was either Peter Obi for president or no one else. Nobody, not even if Tinubu had personally visited each polling unit, could have changed anything. They publicly said it and also promised right there at the polling centres, where they manned their votes, that they would return Governor BabajideSanwo-Olu during the governorship election the following week. They did exactly just that.

Some mischief makers, many of them seeking favour from the president, had insinuated that the governor could not have escaped the same fate if the elections had held the same day. But they forgot that the National Assembly elections held the same day as the president’s and the APC cleared nearly all the seats in landslide victory. That, of course, is something to critically dimension ahead of the next elections.

The resentment was against the president and not the party. But has the situation changed? Maybe not. At least, expectations are that the APC must have started commissioning serious polls, preparatory to the 2027 elections. This would serve as some reliable guide, going into the elections, which are not going to come easy for any of the parties.

The APC should let the ADC contend with its beginner challenges. Interestingly, by its alphabetical order, the coalition party might come first on the ballot (you know what that could mean at elections). So, the APC should get to work if it truly intends to compete fairly in 2027 and not rely on some “wuruwuru to the answer” strategy.

If the ADC holds a successful and rancour-free national convention, produces a good presidential candidate without any aggrieved contender to the ticket threatening the unity of the house, and given the current state of the nation, then the APC should know that a storm is fast approaching and might wreak unprecedented havoc.

In 2027, power shift would not be an issue. Religion would also not be a concern. If a Muslim-Muslim ticket is doable, a north or south leadership – back to back – is also doable. But the state of the nation, dwelling on issues of the economy, security, social welfare, food security, tax, education, power, infrastructure, stability et al – would decide the fate of the parties in 2027.

After all, the constitution didn’t say two terms of eight years are mandatory. So, if power had shifted to the south in 2023 on account of rotational presidency, the choice of where it goes in 2027 is with the people, who would vote on whether or not their lives had changed between now and then.

Unfortunately, for the ADC, the picture that many objective observers could see of it is one of an aggrieved group, desperate to grab power, not out of common ideology towards development but an opportunity to seek vengeance.

The posturing of a former Kaduna State governor, Malam Nasir El-Rufai, has depicted nothing beyond anger and vengeance. This is supposed to be a frontline member of the group, who had long gone on the offensive. His stand is also not different from that of a former governor of Osun State, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola. The bitterness is too discernible to encourage a positive reading of an auspicious opposition coalition.

Again, if truth must be told, the opposition should blame itself for whatever has become of their place in the body politic today. The alleged gravitation toward a one-party state, for example, was one needless distraction that the opposition dwelt too much on. If the opposition could come together, mobilise like-minds to form a strong tower against the ruling party. What is wrong with the APC, too, consolidating its current stand by bringing more people into its fold? It’s a game of numbers, after all.

But the point not to miss is, across the parties, these opposition figures, particularly as political entities, have failed to live up to expectations. They seem to lack the capacity to play constructive opposition, let alone manage their parties and its inherent tendencies.

How comprehensible it is that the opposition, in their respective units, has not been able to maintain one house since the APC assumed office, even though they would rather blame external interference as if that would stop by changing shell. Except for a few individuals espousing sometimes differing opinions on national issues, the opposition has never for once come up with sound and common party positions on issues.

Save for the likes of AlhajiAtikuAbubakar, Mr. Peter Obi, Malam Nasir El-Rufai, and a few other opposition leaders addressing different issues at different times, how were the parties able to make an impact in the choice of the National Assembly leadership, for example?

Did the opposition parties ever meet to take a position and give directives to their lawmaker members, guiding them in what direction to vote? No! A majority of their lawmakers went rogue immediately after their inauguration, seeing the humongous perks that would come to their office if they learned “good table manner” and stop talking while eating.

When the tax reform bills were introduced, could anyone recall the positions of the parties aside from those espoused by their leaders? Are these really opposition parties? When the president slammed the emergency rule on Rivers State, individual leaders would rather ask to be heard than push a solid party front. Their members sold out even before the matter landed in the National Assembly.

How serious is this sort of opposition in a society where the ruling party does not take prisoners? While the ADC-led coalition seems promising, it is concerning that a majority of the leaders, especially in the PDP and the LP, could not manage the crises in their parties, but would rather abandon the ship and bail out.

Even more confounding is that many of the new ADC leaders have refused to resign from their former parties but are mulling the idea of standing astride in both parties. What manner of politics is that, and to what end? So, half and half, both the ruling party and the opposition have a lot to deal with if they must make any meaningful impact in the 2027 elections.

While this intervention is not to side with any of the parties or their leaders, but to wake the whole of the system to the reality that stares everyone in the face, it must be noted that the next election is not a done deal or a walkover as some might have thought.

Several other factors are germane. Even with rigging as an option, it must be buried into the science of clinical electoral kneading. Otherwise, no one is able to predict the consequence of such a choice in the face of hunger and anger.

However, if 24 hours is indeed a long time in politics, the whole essence of this is that all sides (especially the ruling party), still have some ample time to change their current story and present a better score-sheet during the 2027 elections.

THISDAY NEWSPAPERS LTD