2027: Nigerian opposition yet to show commitment to oust APC
Iwok Iniobong
APC Flag
...Despite attempts at coalition
…Personal interests, ambitions major challenge – Okunade
The quest by the leaders of Nigeria’s opposition groups to unseat incumbent President Bola Ahmed Tinubu through a coalition bloc could be derailed by competing personal ambitions and egos, observers have said.
Sources close to those involved in the coalition plan have already hinted that the political ambition of some individuals and zoning disputes are stalling negotiations among the political leaders.
The opposition parties and leaders have so far failed to show any serious commitment or strategic coordination needed to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of the 2027 general election.
This is unlike the APC during its days in opposition, when it stood as a formidable force against the then ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
In recent weeks, opposition parties’ figures have intensified consultations which have seen the beginning of realignment of political forces. This is in preparation for the much-talked-about coalition of parties to wrest power from the ruling party in 2027.
Led by Atiku Abubakar, the PDP’s presidential candidate in the 2023 election, Nasir El-Rufai, former Kaduna State governor, Peter Obi presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 general election, the opposition leaders have promised to give the ruling APC a run for its money and change the political narratives.
Atiku had recently admitted that the coalition plan ahead 2027 was on.
“Yes, this is the birth of the coalition of opposition ahead of 2027,” Atiku had said at an event convened to address President Tinubu’s declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State over the political crisis there.
Among those present were Peter Obi’s representative, Yunusa Tanko; Babachir David Lawal, Nasir El-Rufai, Segun Sowunmi, Soni Monidafe, Salihu Lukman, Peter Ameh, and Adamu Maina Waziri.
But there are concerns about the commitment of some politicians to the realisation of such a coalition and sell-out by others who may be impostors.
Pundits have said that the current opposition is disjointed and largely ineffective and noted that the 2027 election could not be won by a simple coalition, but would require a solid alliance of all opposition parties.
They hinged their predictions on the fact that alliances are much more effective, stronger, offer more stability and formidable front than coalitions.
“The proposed coalition may not achieve much, given the fact that the two top opposition parties that are expected to form the coalition – PDP and Labour Party – are currently battling internal leadership crises.
“These unresolved issues are likely to linger and further weaken their collective strength, making it difficult to present a united front in the next general election,” Hameed Muritala, a political analyst, said.
Muritala further stated that the only meaningful opposition in Nigeria today are the citizens who continue to express their frustration with the policies and actions of the present government that have subjected them to untold hardship.
Disagreement over platform
Presently, part of the unresolved issues in the coalition talk has been the platform to use that is acceptable.
Many political actors involved in the coalition talk have expressed skepticism about the Social Democratic Party (SDP)’s capacity to seriously challenge a well-funded ruling party and are demanding that rather the LP or the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) be used.
This current coalition approach allows political actors to remain in their respective parties while working towards a shared objective- unseating Tinubu in 2027.
Atiku is said to be in support of such a plan and has been clamouring for it since the end of 2027 general election.
Political analysts are of the view that the LP would have been the best platform for such a coalition, if not for the leadership crisis that has currently engulfed it, especially since the LP was a major force that had challenged the APC and PDP dominance in the last general election.
Speaking recently, Kamilu Sani Fage, a professor and renowned political analyst, explained that mergers require parties to collapse into one, whereas coalitions allow individuals or parties to collaborate without dismantling their structures.
He noted that the key players likely recognised the challenges of a merger, given the current state of their parties.
Will power remain in the south?
Many key politicians in the coalition talk, especially those in South western Nigeria are in favour of power remaining in the south for eight years.
However, there are those who want regional consideration to be put aside and a candidate that is popular and can aid the coalition chance of securing electoral victory is considered instead.
Sources revealed that the camps of Obi and former Rivers’ State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi, were demanding that power should stay in the South for eight years. Many of the political actors in the coalition plan, particularly from the South, were hesitant to fully engage in the discussions to avoid jeopardising the process.
It was revealed that part of the reasons for the delay in negotiations was due to uncertainty surrounding whether Atiku would run. But it is clear that Atiku wants a shot at the presidency, at least, for the last time.
Lukman, George’s fears
A former APC North-West Vice Chairman, Salihu Lukman, recently declared that coalition talk were on-going and that the main focus of the talks was securing a commitment from leaders to work together, even if it means setting aside their personal ambitions for 2027.
Another critical aspect is deciding which political party will serve as the coalition’s platform.
While acknowledging that zoning concerns have emerged among some leaders, Lukman dismissed media reports that disagreements were stalling the process.
He emphasized that the final decision on candidate selection will only be made once an agreement is reached on the party platform for the coalition.
Also speaking, Bode George, a prominent member of the PDP, faulted the formation of the coalition and the idea of a mega party, insisting that the move was driven by personal ambition.
George also raised concerns over the emerging alliance of opposition figures aspiring for the positions of president or vice president respectively, rather than a structured political coalition.
Opposition must act fast or forget winning
Kunle Okunade, a political analyst, said the coalition has not much time to consolidate its influence in the polity and so the planners must act fast to reinvent its existence if they truly want to unseat Tinubu in 2027.
He noted that it would not be an easy task to unseat Tinubu based on his political sagacity and understanding of opposition politics.
According to him, “If you remember vividly in 2013 when APC was about to be born, Tinubu was a master of opposition politics and played a key role in the formation of a strong force that eventually unseated a sitting president.
“In this way, he understands how strategic coalition could be used to unseat the incumbent. This strategy, Tinubu may not allow it to manifest. Suffix to say, the likes of Atiku, Obi, El-Rufai would have a huge task in coming up with a coalition that would be very proactive and smart to unseat Tinubu.
“For me, this task they may not be able to achieve because their primordial interest and ambition may destroy the essence of the coalition in the long run.”
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