Bola Tinubu-The Road Ahead
The bumps and obstacles trailing his ambition
Arguably, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, former governor of Lagos State and chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is the most successful politician since the beginning of the third republic in 1999, perhaps, aside from President Muhammadu Buhari. Asiwaju Bola Tinubu who is also Jagaba Borgu in Niger State has remained a recurring decimal since the advent of the third republic.
Whereas majority of the 1999 class of governors have faded into oblivion, Bola Tinubu has continued to wax from strength to strength. It is to his political dexterity that he successfully forged a political coalition with disparate political entities which coalesced into the APC and later went into electoral battle against the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2015 general elections.
His deft political move led to the ouster of the PDP after it had spent sixteen years in power. As the architect of that victory that swept General Muhammadu Buhari to power, Tinubu then assumed the honorific title of National Leader of the APC.
What's more, his stewardship in Lagos for eight years is a testimony to his foresight, vision and political sagacity. Bola Tinubu not only reengineered public finance in Lagos, he also went ahead to build an enduring legacy by consolidating the Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) of the State, making Lagos self-sustaining and independent of the Federation's Account. He is also credited with the development of a masterplan for Lagos. His successors have built upon the legacy he left behind. That's why Lagos is ranked as the fourth largest economy in Africa. Lagos has a GDP of $84 billion, according to Governor Babajide Sanwoolu, ahead of Ghana's $67 billion and Rwanda's $10.4 billion.
Though critics contend that Lagos State labours under the weight of heavy debts. The state has a debt profile of 39.692 billion naira, according to the state’s Commissioner for Finance Mr Rabiu Olowo. The commisioner said the debts were sustainable and are in line with international and local benchmarks. The Lagos debt profile is the highest amongst the 36 states.
Apart from all this, Senator Tinubu’s most unique attribute is that ability to discover and harness talent and deploy them to service. His proteges are virtually in every sphere of the Buhari administration. For example, the Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo who served as the Attorney General in Lagos State was virtually handpicked by Asiwaju Bola Tinubu as the running mate to the presidential candidate of the APC General Muhammadu Buhari in the 2015 presidential election. Tinubu is also a great mobilizer at the grassroots.
Despite this seemingly glittering credentials, a lot of controversy has dogged his footsteps with the opposition in Lagos State accusing him of cornering the finances of Lagos to his advantage. He's also accused of allegedly skimming billions from the IGR of Lagos State through his company that serves as a tax consultant for the state government. A former CEO of Alpha-beta, Mr Dapo Apara had petitioned the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) on this score, accusing Tinubu of corrupt practices. Tinubu, who is believed to be brain behind the company, however has not responded to this charges by both the opposition and his detractors.
Indeed Bola Tinubu has made no bones about his ambition of becoming of president. He has been a kingmaker, shepherding Muhammadu Buhari to victory after three failed attempts to secure the presidency.
According to snippets gleaned from the autobiography of Chief Bisi Akande, ‘My Participations,’ the former Lagos State governor was to have been picked as running mate to General Muhammadu Buhari in the 2015 presidential election but for last minute considerations on the viability of a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Having foreclosed the vice presidency as his pathway to his ultimate goal, Bola Tinubu now bidded his time.
Now the kingmaker is no longer content with installing presidents. He has set his sights on the presidency. So with 2023 around the corner, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu has thrown his hat in the ring, and has confided in President Buhari his desire to become president during a visit to the Villa on Monday.
In a chat with reporters at the end of his visit to the president, Bola Tinubu was asked if he would run for president. He said: “I answer that with categorical yes. I’ve informed the President of my intention but I have not informed Nigerians yet. I’m still consulting. And I have no problem consulting. And I’ve noticed that a parameter of limitation to the extent of how many people will I consult.
“You will soon hear. All you want to hear is the categorical declaration. You’ve gotten that truth from me that I have informed Mr. President of my ambition,” he stated.
On whether he received any commitment from the president, he said, “The president didn't advise me to drop my ambition. He’s a democrat. He didn't ask me to stop. He didn't ask me not to attempt and pursue my ambition.”
He parried a question on a potential race for the APC ticket between him and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo whose support groups have been mobilizing for his candidacy. Already the 57 member Osinbajo support group for president has said the party's ticket would not be won on a platter of gold, in reaction to Tinubu's declaration.
Tinubu asserted that his ambition to be president of Nigeria had been a life-long ambition, noting that with what he did in Lagos in his time as governor, he has the capacity, competence and vision to rule Nigeria.
On Osinbajo’s potential ambition, the APC national leader maintained that he would not discuss any individual.
Asked why he would not remain a kingmaker rather than being the king, he said there is nothing that stops a kingmaker from becoming the king unless he has committed murder.
Tinubu's declaration is viewed as a strategic move and has already incurred both support and condemnation from the political divide. By firing the first salvo, Bola Tinubu has become the frontrunner for his party s presidential ticket. For now other contenders will remain under his shadow.
Still, many believe there's a quid pro quo between Bola Tinubu and President Buhari. Perhaps for Tinubu his visit is a subtle reminder that time is ripe to collect the political IOUs which would be due in 2023. But then, the president has been coy in open declaration of support for any candidate. In an interview with Arise Television, President Buhari said he would keep to his chest his favourite candidate for president. “If I mentioned his name he will be eliminated,” the president stressed.
Even if he gets the endorsement of President Buhari that would not be enough for him to clinch his party’s ticket. Still, he will have the powerful governor's forum to contend with, since Governor Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti, who is also chairman of the governor's forum, is rumoured to be in contention for the presidency. Also, there’s the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), on whose platform President Buhari had campaigned for president prior to the formation of the APC, reportedly rooting for another candidate. Some have even suggested that the CPC faction will prefer to retain the presidency in the north.
Again, the new PDP faction led by former governor Rotimi Amaechi, who also has his eyes set on the presidency is waiting in the wings. In addition, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) faction led by former Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State, which also merged into the APC, is a counterbalance to other factions in the party, with a toehold in the southeast.
In all this, the Vice President Professor Yemi Osinbajo who is also under pressure to contest will prove a countervailing force to Bola Tinubu’s ambition. Though a Tinubu protege, Asiwaju will only underestimate the vice president to his peril.
It's important to note the role of the party machinery in any calculations on who flies the party's flag in 2023. For one thing, the Governor's Forum wants to maintain a stranglehold on the party machinery to enable them call the shots eventually.
In addition, there's battle over the Electoral amendment Act which proposed direct primaries for party elections but was jettisoned by President Buhari who refused to sign it in alignment with the governors. The president’s refusal to sign the amended bill has set the National Assembly against the governors.
Observers believe that direct primaries would give the likes of Asiwaju Tinubu a headstart in the race for the party’s flag. Commenting on the direct primaries, Asiwaju Tinubu said “the National Assembly and the president must be encouraged to review and review again,” obviously aware that a direct primaries will give him an edge in the race as the party's flag bearer.
In terms of mobilization and grassroots support across the country, Bola Tinubu is far ahead of his peers. In the southwest, the South West Agenda for Asiwaju (SWAGA) has been beating the drum of support for Tinubu's presidency, saying he has what it takes to deliver the goods. In Kwara State, another support group has been voiceferous over his ambition.
Besides, Governor Abdullahi Ganduje of Kano State is solidly behind Asiwaju Tinubu. Also, over 2000 league of Imams in Kano State have embarked on prayers for the success of Asiwaju Tinubu. Also, various support groups in the northwest and northeast are working behind the scenes for a Tinubu presidency.
However, the apex Igbo socio-cultural organisation Ohanaeze Ndigbo had described the declaration of Tinubu to contest the Presidency in 2023 as against the rules of natural justice and unfortunate. In a way, Tinubu's declaration is like a spanner in the works for the southeast that has been campaigning for a southeast presidency.
Ohaneze expressed regret that the former Lagos State Governor had chosen to add to the crisis of Nigeria instead of joining hands with patriots to save the corporate existence of the country.
The spokesman for Ohaneze, Chief Alex Ogbonnia told the Punch in reaction to the Tinubu’s formal declaration, “It is an assertion rooted in history and experience that any project that is not supported by justice and equity will not succeed.”
He said “It is a project that is dead on arrival. Because God is a universal entity that he is always interested in truth, fairness and equity. So for anybody embarking on anything that is not rooted in equity and justice will not succeed and this is a countervailing force that has sustained this world from the beginning.
“So Tinubu knows that he is embarking on a cause that has no foundation in anything: foundation in equity and justice, and of course is a project that will not succeed.”
Even though Asiwaju Bola Tinubu has made an open declaration for the presidential race, yet there are formidable obstacles on his path to the ultimate prize. Majorly, he has the southeast and party apparatchiks to contend with. Though he has shown courage and confidence in an early declaration for the 2023 presidential race, still he will have to negotiate many political landmines along the way.