Can ongoing coalition unseat Tinubu in 2027?
File image of Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar
By Dapo Akinrefon & John Alechenu
WITH the preparations for 2027 general elections already gathering momentum, political gladiators across party lines are putting finishing touches to a coalition designed to ensure President Bola Tinubu is not reelected for a second term. In March, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and other opposition politicians spoke of a coalition to unseat the APC in the 2027 elections.
The former Vice President had addressed a press conference in Abuja, which was organised by concerned political leaders and stakeholders. The event was attended by key political figures, including former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir el-Rufai; former Imo State Governor, Mr Emeka Ihedioha; former APC National Working Committee (NWC) member, Salihu Lukman, and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachir Lawal.
When asked about the possibility of a united opposition front against the APC, Abubakar affirmed, “Yes,” signalling a strategic effort to consolidate political forces ahead of the next general elections.
“President Tinubu yielded to petty favouritism and betrayed the oath that he solemnly swore before God and man, which was to ‘do right to all manner of people, according to law, without fear or favour, affection or ill-will,’” he stated.
As the coalition forges ahead with its campaign, it has been observed that many of the faces behind the alliance have an axe to grind either with the APC or the President himself. Interestingly, some of the faces behind the coalition are aggrieved members of Tinubu’s political camp, that is, those who felt left out of the sharing of the spoils of victory after the 2023 elections; members of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, originally a building bloc of the APC and opposition party members from the PDP, Labour Party and African Democratic Congress, ADC.
Just as the APC emerged in 2013, the coalition is seeking to adopt the Social Democratic Party, SDP, or the ADC to actualise its dreams.
Atiku, Obi coalition details secret — Ex-VP’s aide
Atiku’s Media Adviser, Mazi Paul Ibe, disclosed that while significant progress has been made in the coalition-building process, specific details, including power-sharing arrangements, were still being finalised. Ibe said: “What I can confirm is that Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and all the opposition leaders are working diligently towards building a viable and robust coalition platform. The details are currently being ironed out, though I can’t confirm specifics at this stage. What I can say is that significant progress has been made, and it’s only a matter of time before the coalition is finalised and brought to fruition. As for the issue of the platform and other related matters, these are being carefully worked out. At this point, I believe the leaders are keeping their cards close to their chest. However, once the coalition is fully established, all the details will be unveiled.”
Other individuals and groups have indicated interest in joining the coalition but are keeping their level of involvement under wraps until talks behind the scenes have been concluded.
Faces behind the coalition
Atiku Abubakar
The leader of the coalition, the former Vice President, was the Presidential candidate of the defunct Action Congress, AC, in the 2007 election. The AC was a political party founded by President Tinubu during his time as Lagos State governor in 2006. Atiku, who had fallen out of favour with his then boss, President Olusegun Obasanjo, was given the platform to pursue his presidential ambition.
However, he came third behind Obasanjo’s preferred candidate, late Umaru Yar’Adua of the PDP, who won the election and Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd), of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP, who was declared the 1st runner up by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC.
Atiku returned to the PDP afterwards but once more left the party to reunite with Tinubu and others during the formation of the APC to end the PDP’s 16-year rule in 2015.
Not too long after PDP’s ouster from power and the emergence of former President Muhammadu Buhari, the former Vice President again left the party and returned to the PDP, where he contested against Buhari on the platform of the PDP in 2019 and lost. He again ran as PDP’s Presidential candidate in the 2023 election, which he lost to Tinubu, who had emerged as APC’s flag bearer after Buhari’s eight years in power. Atiku, still hoping to fly the PDP flag in 2027, is now working with others to stop Tinubu’s second-term bid. He said on numerous occasions that: “We are building a coalition involving all major political parties; the APC, PDP and Labour Party. This is the only viable path forward to confront an incompetent and inefficient government.”
Peter Obi
Another face behind the coalition is the 2023 Presidential candidate of the Labour Party, LP, Mr Peter Obi. Obi, who was Atiku’s running mate in the 2019 Presidential election on the PDP platform, became his own man in the 2023 Presidential race.
Within roughly eight months after dumping the PDP to contest the Presidency under the relatively obscure LP, Obi rattled traditional politicians with a more than average outing, which included the routing of the APC stronghold of Lagos State. Explaining his support for the anti-Tinubu coalition, he said, “I’m in coalition against hunger, a coalition against poverty, a coalition against ill health; politics for me is not about position, it is about doing the right thing.”
Nasir El-Rufai
One man with an axe to grind with both President Tinubu and the APC is arguably the immediate past Governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai. He was one of a few Northern Governors of the APC who fought for power to return to the South after Buhari’s eight years. Though el-Rufai’s opponents argue that he shifted support to Tinubu when it became obvious that the latter could not be stopped, it is, however, on record that Tinubu lost to Atiku in Kaduna state during the 2023 election under his (el-Rufai’s) watch. A particularly painful experience awaited El-Rufai, who was promised a cabinet position after he was screened for the job by the Senate.
Having been disqualified based on an inexplicable “security report”, el-Rufai has been bitter ever since.
To demonstrate his determination to see the coalition work, he dumped the APC and re-united with Atiku, whom he had derided in the past. El-Rufai has indicated interest in joining others in the Social Democratic Party, SDP, to give Tinubu and the APC a run for their money in 2027.
Salihu Lukman
Former Director General of the Progressives Governors Forum, Dr Salihu Lukeman, who resigned his position as APC’s National Vice Chairman (North West), has also thrown his weight behind the coalition. According to him, his decision was based on the fact that Tinubu and the APC had derailed from the principles outlined in the party’s manifesto.
Babachir Lawal
Mr Babachir Lawal, who was former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, SGF, in the Buhari administration, was shown the way out following alleged fraud. Lawal, who has since fallen out with the APC, was one of those who opposed the Muslim-Muslim ticket during the APC primary.
Unfortunately, he was not compensated, and this has left him angry with Tinubu. He has since joined the coalition and has been vocal against the current administration.
Rotimi Amaechi
The former Rivers State governor, Mr Rotimi Amaechi, is another frontline member of the coalition.
Amaechi, who emerged second during the APC presidential primary, has since fallen out with the APC and Tinubu presidency, perhaps because he was not given any role in the current government.
He has also been vocal over the current state of the nation and condemned the declaration of an emergency rule in his home state of Rivers. Frowning at the state of emergency in Rivers, Amaechi labelled it as not just illegal, but a “defilement of the sacredness and sanctity of the constitution.” He also expressed concerns over the award of the coastal road construction contract, questioning the transparency of the process.
Kayode Fayemi
Former governor of Ekiti State, Dr Kayode Fayemi, was among those named in the alliance. Though the former Minister was absent during the unveiling of the coalition, he is yet to make a pronouncement on the level of his involvement.
Speaking on the whether the anti-Tinubu coalition would see it through in 2027, a foundation member of the APC, Mr Osita Okechukwu, described the coalition as a bogey. He said: “One will candidly submit that going by the 1999 Constitution, they are all qualified because they’re Nigerians and have the inalienable rights to bid for the presidency of our country. All one is praying fervently for is the big elephant in their room (Atiku) to hang out as a presidential candidate in 2027.
“I understand the nuances of the big elephant and I don’t see him mustering the political will of President Bola Tinubu, who, after the 2011 presidential election, confided in President Muhammadu Buhari that he would support his bid for president. That was the tonic of the historic merger of my great party, the APC, in 2013. The big elephant and his cronies have started by floating another bogey in the public space, while carefully watching whether the bait will be swallowed. Their awkward permutation runs thus that by 2027, the South will have presided over the country for 17 years and the North for 11 years. Therefore, it is the turn of the north in 2027, as if Nigeria’s independence date is 1999.
“They always assume that the northern electorate, one of the most sophisticated electorate, are holed up in a dormitory to be marshaled to the polling booths on polling day as they assumed in 2023.”
How far Atiku and his coalition will go, only time will tell.
Vanguard Media Limited