Decline Of The West? We May Find Out For Real In 2024

The West is a spent force, say China, Russia and their global clique, yet it retains plenty of decisive cards including a choice to back Ukraine to the hilt. The year may yet reveal the world's rising, and ranking, powers.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin meeting in Moscow

Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin meeting in Moscow in March 2023. Grigory Sysoyev/TASS/ZUMACarlos Pérez LlanaJanuary 05, 2024

-Analysis-

BUENOS AIRES — Is the West in decline, while the power and influence shift to the rest of the world? Are mid-level powers having their moment, and is the bipolar world order breaking into a fuzzy hierarchy? Yes, these things are happening, but none can explain by itself either the grammar or mechanics of power in our world.

For a strategic reading of the global power agenda in 2024, we must first identify the significant dates and locations where the world's major interests intersect, and clash.

The Sino-Russian declaration of "boundless friendship" (issued February 4, 2022) was one of those. Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, both countries identified a shared goal of thwarting U.S. and Western hegemony. They chose a joint strategy around the central idea of weakening the United States and "mobilizing" the states of that shifting space termed Global South.

Their isolation would be noted in multilateral forums like the United Nations, and complement the increasing autonomy of certain mid-ranking powers whose interests were now diverging from those of the West. A perfect illustration is Saudi Arabia, which has chosen to work with Russia to govern the OPEC+ group of oil producers.

This isolating strategy includes a particular element of 'quantifiable' diplomacy. The United States and its allies are often in a minority at critical moments, which causes them to lose important votes at the UN. This consolidates the impression of defeat and of the West's waning influence before rising blocks and new alignments.

Worldcrunch