How mass defections expose Nigeria’s weak political structure
Iwok Iniobong
Political parties in Nigeria
…Defection does not guarantee automatic electoral victory – Oduwole
The wave of defection in Nigerian politics has become a recurring phenomenon, with elected officials frequently switching party allegiance, particularly from opposition parties to the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) in recent times.
Political analysts say the trend raises concerns about the integrity of political institutions, and the commitment of politicians to political ideology in Nigeria.
In recent times, there has been a surge in mass defections, particularly among serving lawmakers and high-profile politicians, from the three leading opposition parties, particularly from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP).
Last week, after months of rumours and denials of impending defection, the Delta State governor, Sheriff Oborevwori eventually dumped the PDP for the APC.
The announcement was made following a closed-door meeting at the Government House in Asaba Wednesday evening.
Also, last Wednesday, Ifeanyi Okowa, former Delta governor, also caused a stir by announcing his decision to dump the PDP.
Okowa, a medical doctor-turned-politician, served as the PDP’s vice presidential candidate in the 2023 presidential election.
The selection of Okowa as the running mate by presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar over former Rivers State governor and current Minister for the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, has been identified as the primary reason for Wike’s rebellion against the party, leading to on-going internal crisis.
The defection of the two politicians from the party that gave them the chance to become governor has raised concerns about the fate of the main opposition party ahead of the 2023 general election, and the planned coalition by opposition politicians to challenge President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid.
But many opposition politicians have accused the presidency of using instruments of the state to coerce PDP governors to defect to APC. Although defection is not new in Nigeria’s political space, analysts say the trend may continue.
They stated that the trend of defection calls for a critical examination of the underlying causes, the constitutional and legal framework governing party cross-carpeting and potential solutions to curb the practice.
“The reasons behind mass defections in Nigerian politics are deeply rooted in the nature of the country’s political culture. Politics in Nigeria is largely driven by personal ambition rather than ideology.
“Many politicians see political parties as mere platforms for winning elections rather than as vehicles for governance based on principles,” Cletus Uwakina, lawyer, political strategist and President, Crusaders Advocacy Initiative said.
Uwakina further argued that once they perceive their political future is threatened in one party, they swiftly migrate to another where they believe their chances of retaining power or gaining influence are higher.
For now, the trend would continue because political parties in Nigeria lack internal democracy, while there is bearing influence of the ruling party. Most politicians in Nigeria are only after political patronage and personal ambition.
Pundits say that part of the problem was that the ruling party in Nigeria has significant control over state resources, appointments, and security agencies, making it attractive for politicians seeking political protection or access to financial benefits.
Implication of a one-party state?
The defection of leading opposition politicians to the APC has further strengthened the party at the centre, making it increasingly easy for incumbent President Bola Tinubu to win the 2027 presidential election.
The APC consolidated its stronghold in Nigeria’s politics by winning more states during recent off-season governorship elections and with the lingering crisis which has crumbled opposition parties, observers say Nigeria risks sliding into one-party state.
Interestingly, it is becoming obvious the dominance of the ruling party may expand across opposition stronghold states in 2027, with defection to the ruling party and endorsement of President Tinubu’s second term bid by PDP governors.
Moves by opposition politicians to form a coalition and present a common front against the ruling party, perhaps, could be the only obstacle that could scuttle the plan to give President Tinubu easy-ride to a second term in office.
With the wave of defection, there are increasing fears; the country was sliding to a one-party state. Pundits say a one-party state is dangerous for our democracy and governance, as it undermines checks and balances, stifles healthy political competition, and can lead to authoritarian tendencies, which are unhealthy for our democracy.
“When opposition voices are weakened or silenced through defections, it limits accountability and reduces the space for alternative ideas and policies.
“For our democracy to thrive, there should be a vibrant opposition that can keep the government on its toes and provide meaningful alternatives for the people,” Hammed Muritala, political analyst, said.
The political analyst stated that it was unfortunate that Nigeria has not had a robust and viable opposition in the recent past, stressing that the way politicians from the opposition parties move to the ruling party shows a lack of ideological differences and leadership values.
Similarly, Ajibola Oduwole, lawyer and political pundit, disagreed that the country was heading towards a one-party state, or that citizens are even drifting towards it.
The lawyer noted that politicians pushing that perspective have a lazy mindset.
Oduwole further stated that politicians need to get their acts together, because power has never been served a la carte and democracy cannot survive without a credible opposition and civil society.
“Getting to where we are today wasn’t a walk in the park; it was the blood and sweat of our heroes’ past. Even after we attained democracy, it was believed that dislodging a government in power was impossible, but the opposition achieved that in 2015.
“People should aspire for what they desire, so long as it is within the ambits of the law. People paid with their lives and freedom to achieve the democracy we have today”, he stressed.
What the governors’ defections mean for the people of their states?
The defection of some opposition governors and politicians to the ruling party does not mean they would win their states for the APC and President Tinubu in 2027, political analysts have said.
Citing example in the 2023 presidential election where Peter Obi, the LP candidate and the Obidient movement won presidential election in some states, despite being ruled by PDP and APC governors, they stated that the game was just starting.
Many Nigerians say the defecting governors and politicians in Nigeria are only after political patronage and personal ambition and should not be taken seriously.
There is the view in some quarters that the defection would not have any direct impact on governance in their states, but was rather for the governors’ survival.
“On state governors moving to the ruling party, I don’t think that will translate to any meaningful thing for the people of those states or have any effect on governance. Whether in PDP, APC or Labour Party, Nigerian politicians have proven to be the same,” Oduwole added.
Pundits say it was still early to say out rightly the current wave of defection would have any impact on the 2027 election, noting that 24 hours is a very long time in politics.
“But we must never forget that the 2023 presidential election defied several odds, which saw several state governors lose their states to opposition parties.
“24 hours is a very long time in politics and people who desire to govern us at all levels must continue to work hard at it,” Temitope Musowo, public policy expert, said.
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