How Nigeria can turn painful reforms into long-term gains

Wasiu Alli, Ngozi Ekugo, Ibrahim Abubakar, Chinwe Michael, Bethel Olujobi Eniola Olatunji, Juliet Onyeama, Folake Balogun & Bolu Omotayo

…Stability, inclusivity, sustainability critical keys, says KPMG

…Dangote tips refinery expansion as Nigeria’s success story

…Edun says Nigeria rallying investors

The ongoing economic reforms have been painful for Nigerians, but analysts say the nation’s authorities must take certain steps to turn the hardship into long-term gains.

At the BusinessDay’s 13th CEO Forum themed, ‘Nigeria: From Reform to Recovery,’ held on Thursday in Lagos, chief executive officers, economists, finance gurus, development specialists and other strategists said the reforms have been transformative but require some improvement to translate into gains for over 200 million Nigerian citizens.

Tola Adeyemi, senior partner at KPMG Nigeria, who was the keynote speaker, outlined three ways the reforms could transform Nigeria’s economy’s future.

One key way the reforms can impact the economy, he said, is through macroeconomic stability.

He said the unification of exchange rates and subsidy removal, though painful, have helped to address long-standing distortions in Nigeria’s fiscal and monetary systems.

However, he said stability alone is not enough, noting that the authorities must ensure that the economy is more inclusive.

“This is where communication, leadership, and quick wins become essential,” Adeyemi explained.

He urged the government to clearly articulate the goals and benefits of reforms, demonstrate shared sacrifice, and roll out short-term measures that offer relief to the most vulnerable.

The third and, perhaps, the most crucial area is sustainability. Adeyemi warned that without strong institutions, the reforms may not last.

“It’s not enough for one administration to push reforms,” he said. “We need laws, policies, and institutions that will protect and build on these changes across political cycles.”

He referenced countries like Indonesia and Vietnam, which have implemented sustained reforms anchored by legal frameworks and political consensus. Nigeria, he said, must develop its model of reform sustainability, rooted in institutional strength, coordinated planning, and inclusive governance.

Adeyemi also urged the private sector to play a more active role in shaping policy and preparing for technology-driven disruptions. “There are opportunities in this economy,” he said. “But businesses must be agile, strategic, and aligned with Nigeria’s broader economic vision.”

While the road to recovery may be long and uneven, the groundwork, he believes, is already being laid.

He further said that the nation’s reforms have been comprehensive but must be coordinated.

Adeyemi noted, “Are the reforms yielding the right results? From a responsiveness standpoint, the data suggests early signs of recovery. Economic growth is trending upward, trade balances have improved, foreign exchange rates are stabilising, and access to forex has become more consistent.”

He then noted, “If you ask whether the reforms are yielding the right results, the honest answer is both yes and no—it really depends on who you’re speaking to. For the investor and business communities, there are signs of progress. But for the general population, the overwhelming response is still no.”

He noted that to bridge the gap, citizens must be clearly and repeatedly informed about what each reform aims to achieve, when benefits can be expected, and how progress is being measured. He noted that the government should model the very efficiency and discipline it demands from citizens.

Tony Attah, CEO of Renaissance Africa Energy, said while there have been reforms in the petroleum industry through the passage of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), the Act had become “outdated on arrival.”

He stressed the need for a comprehensive review that considers recent technological advancements, including artificial intelligence (AI), digitalisation, and the energy transition.

The Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 was signed into law by former President of Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari, on August 16, 2021.

The act is a significant piece of legislation aimed at reforming Nigeria’s oil and gas industry. It replaces the older Petroleum Act of 1969 and introduces a new legal, governance, regulatory, and fiscal framework.

The PIA aims to modernise the industry, attract investment, and promote sustainable development.

“The Act doesn’t take cognisance of digitalisation, and it doesn’t recognise AI. In today’s world, you can’t survive without AI,” Attah said. “We need to revise the PIA to reflect current realities.”

In a fireside chat, Aliko Dangote, chairman and president of Dangote Group, said his Group’s refinery expansion is Nigeria’s success story, stressing the need for the nation to take industrialisation seriously.

“When a company announces its intent to invest, the government should immediately appoint a team to assist them from conception to completion,” he said, citing Singapore as an example of a nation with best practices in investment facilitation.

Dangote said the impact of his 650,000-metric-tons refinery disruption has already been felt internationally as margins for global refineries and shipping companies have shrunk, with prices of refined petroleum products dropping by as much as $50 per ton, benefiting Nigerian consumers.

Nigeria rallies investors

On his part, Wale Edun, coordinating minister for the economy, stated that Nigeria is at ‘a turning point,’ urging investors to seize the momentum and pour in their capital into the country.

“Invest in Nigerian solutions to Nigerian problems.

Build long-term sustainable businesses. We’re inviting our foreign partners to help us as we reshape the new Nigeria,” Edun, represented by Sanyade Okoli, special adviser to the president on finance and economy, said.

“Now more than ever, we have more reasons to be optimistic than not to be. The fundamentals are in a much better position than they have been for quite a while.”

Edun stressed that the reforms have been painful in the short-term but noted that the economy is gradually recovering from the shocks brought by the reforms, assuring that respite is underway.

BUSINESSDAY MEDIA LTD