Is Europe prepared for a Multipolar World?

by Christos Mouzeviris

It has been 5 months since Russia invaded Ukraine. During this time, most of us hoped for a quick compromise by either side, to end this war, limiting the losses in human lives. Obviously this is not the case. Another aspect that has been made absolutely clear, is that this is not just a war between Ukraine and Russia. It is a proxy war between the West and Russia, with Ukraine being the battlefield.

The saddest thing is that this conflict could have been totally avoided. The West insists on blaming the Russian President, Vladimir Putin for everything regarding this war, simplifying the reasoning behind it, as him being a dictator and war monger, thirsty for more land, expanding the former Russian empire, that Russia is not a democracy rather a fascist regime, citing the Soviet Union's role in WW2 and many other outrageous things. A blatant propaganda, anything as an excuse for their voters, on why they decided to pump billions of their money into this war, arming and supporting Ukraine in a conflict it cannot win, unless the West decides to put boots to the ground; starting of course WW3.

How to explain to American, Canadian and European citizens, that this winter, their homes are going to be cold, their house bills and grocery prices higher, their transport and petrol super expensive, because that evil dictator Putin decided to invade a peaceful neighbouring country. This is laughable. The war was being waged in Ukraine for 8 years and during this time, no Western media really explained what was going on in that region.

No government of a NATO country, informed their citizens that since 2014 the alliance had a presence in Ukraine and was training Ukrainian soldiers, in preparation and anticipation of this war. They knew what was coming, but instead of trying to prevent it with diplomacy, they poured more oil into the fire, by deploying troops in the war torn region, arming the Ukrainian side. Has any of us, the citizens been informed about this all this time?

There is a YouTube video, in which we see former US Senators Lindsey Graham and John McCain in Ukraine in 2016, literally preparing the Ukrainians for this proxy war, encouranging them-or lying to them most likely, that they can win this conflict with the aid of USA. How many Ukrainians are the Americans prepared to sacrifice I wonder, to achieve their goals in the region? Them being of course, cutting the ties between Europe and Russia, weaning our continent off cheap Russian energy and removing Vladimir Putin from Russian leadership. They clearly want a reliant Europe on their energy and arms and a weaker, more managable Russia, without authoritarian strongmen like Putin. A win-win for USA. That is not what they may be getting though.

To think that Europe can be cut off from its reliance on cheap Russian energy, and hook itself on that of USA in a matter of months is simply daft. This should have been planned and worked on for decades, but now our American friends want us to achieve this withing a year. And to achieve this, we will have to rely on Saudi oil, or Russian oil via countries like Azerbaijan, and other very "democratic" nations such as Iran. The American President had to go begging for more oil from Saudi Arabia, a nation that they scorned before, but not as much as Russia, obviously.

In a published telephone conversation between French President Emmanuel Macron and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin which took place just 4 days before the Russian invasion, we see that the reasons that the war was allowed to happen were stubborness, pride, petty drama and quasi legalities and treaties, past agreements and intransigence, instead of reason and common sense. Macron is trying to convince Putin to meet with US President Biden, while Putin called for pressure on Zelensky to allow Ukraine to begin direct talks with “D/LPR” militants, something that Macron described as impossible, since "in a sovereign state, the texts of laws are not made up by separatist groups, but democratically elected authorities". That of course made Putin angry as he added: "this is not a democratically elected government. They came to power as a result of a coup, people were burned alive there, it was a bloodbath, and Zelensky was one of those responsible".

Instead of trying avoid this war, as this will be detrimental for everyone involved apart the arms industries, our leaders insist on arguing on legalities and engaging in power-games. On the other hand, there has been little exposure in Western media, of the bombarments of the Donbas and Luhansk regions, by the Ukrainian army, but only the damages that Russia is now inflicting on Ukraine. We are not exposed to the full background of the war, which started after the alleged regime change, the Euromaidan, instigated by US agents in Ukraine-according to Putin's point of view. Where was a grilling on Irish television of the Russian ambassador all these 8 years for example, to request an explanation of Russia's clear involvement and support of the Russian speaking separatists in Ukraine? Nothing, there has been an utter silence.As if Ukrainian soldiers were not killing Russian speaking civilians all these 8 years, but then how did these 14,000 or so victims of the civil war (prior the Russian invasion) occured?

The fact that we are only shown one side of this war, should alarm us. This is not a balanced, but biased portrayal of the conflict, to suit the West's narrative and interests in the region. The question is, why is Europe following US foreign policy so blindly, even if it is clear that we will pay for this war a higher price.

The euro slid towards parity with the American dollar, the first time in 20 years. The last time the euro fell below the dollar was November 2002, when the common currency was still in its infancy. A sliding euro will add to the burden on European households and businesses already reeling from record-high inflation. A weaker currency would make imports, which are mostly denominated in dollars, more expensive. When those items are raw materials or intermediate goods, their higher costs can further drive up local prices.

Riots are already errupting in the Netherlands over new greener farming practices, in Italy we have taxi driver riots over new regulations liberalizing taxi services to include ride-sharing operators like Uber. In addition, German farmers are joining un support for their Dutch counterparts, as the Uber files scandal is shaming the EU Commission and officials, as well many goverments like that of Macron. In this volatile environment in Europe, after 2 years of a pandemic, in which many saw their businesses facing closure, prices of goods, rents and services going up, now we have a war that adds extra expenses to the average European household.

How long before there are more intensive quarrels, frictions and divisions in the EU, as a recession is almost a certain reality for most European households during this winter. Inflation is rising across the eurozone and in some cases like that of Estonia, it has reached the whooping year-high of 22% this month. In Germany, residents make plans amid fears of a winter gas shortage, as the country dims the lights to cope with Russia energy supply crunch. Fears of winter energy crisis bring calls for shorter hot showers and cooler swimming pools. The green agenda is out of the window, as Germany and several of its European neighbours are returning to coal-fired power plants in order to conserve precious reserves of natural gas. How will all the above impact the German or European industries and economy, the backbone of our continent's political and social structure, plus way of life?

If we add to the mix the number of Ukrainian refugees into Europe, which get immediate access to social welfare, housing and work in most EU countries, then the European economy is heading for a big crash. More than 9 million Ukrainian refugees have flooded Europe since the Russian invasion. In some countries like Ireland which took in 50,000 fleeing Ukrainians, this refugee crisis is becoming a big problem and they country is struggling to cope in finding accomodation, now matter how generously and valiantly they are trying to house the ever increasing new arrivals. The problem is how long will the Irish, or in fact European people, be willing to pay for all this, the billions thrown into Ukraine for support, the arms and weaponry provided, the housing expenses for all the refugees, as their own household bills are rising and life standards are being erroded.

Two European Prime Ministers resigned already; the UK PM Boris Johnson, who after a series of scandals finally gave in due to the high cost of living, plus his Italian counterpart, Mario Draghi for similar reasons. Italy’s economic prospects have soured as inflation bites due to the Russo-Ukrainian war. The optimism seen at start of 2022 is fading fast as country undergoes cost-of-living squeeze. So one has to wonder if all the bravado of the European leaders against Russia and Vladimir Putin for the past 8 years and since the start of the war, all the economic sanctions they came up with to hurt the Russian economy and bring down its President, do they now realize that they have backfired? The Russian rouble not only did not collapse, but it is the strongest currency so far this year, contrary to the euro. Europe 'shot itself in the lungs' with sanctions on Russia, the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated recently, and how spot on he is on this. Russia is a country with vast resources, plus the world is not only comprised by the West. If Europe rejects Russian energy, there are plenty more regions on the planet eager for Russian cheap gas!

Why must Europe remain the lap-dog of USA, rely on its army for its own protection, but in return do not have its own foreign policy and must do whatever the US lobbies decide to do? From this war, the US and Russia are the big winners so far, while we Europeans-especially the Ukrainians are paying the highest price. Wouldn't it better to maintain good relations with Russia all this time, negotiate and try to find a solution to the conflict peacefully? What if we don't like the Russian leadership, we do dealings with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, themselves very autocratic countries, lacking democracy and with a very bad human rights or freedom of the press records. Turkey is always being referred as a "valued ally" by NATO's Secretary Jens Stoltenberg, despite the Turks humiliating Sweden and Finland in order for them to be allowed in the alliance, demanding these two countries go against their traditional stance on the Kurdish and other similar problems. Despite Turkey openly threating Greece, an EU and NATO member with war in a Twitter post, plus dealing and negotiating with Russia as they do not join the sanctions against the country, by other Western nations.

We do not object or feel outraged when the Turks invade Syria and Iraq, or when the Saudis bombard with NATO tolerance and support, Yemen for the past 7 years. It is this Western hypocricy and arrogance which inevitably will lead to its own downfall. We have been prospering through conflict and other people's suffering for too long and we should be ashamed of ourselves. The whole so called "Western Civilization" has thrived on war, arms sales, economic bullying and domination, inequality and American hegemony, with the collaboration and support of Europe. How long can we exist like this, being such hypocrites and become outraged by the actions of Russia, but not our own and those countries like Turkey that we "need" to achieve our goals in a region?

The world is changing mind you. As the West is boasting about NATO getting two new members, Sweden and Finland, the so called BRICS (the economic block of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) is also expanding. Argentina, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt have applied to join the group, with Indonesia also thinking of following suit. The developing world wants a change, is getting organized, creating an alternative to Western hegemony. They clearly had enough of our condescending, arrogant and hypocritical attitude towards them. They understandably want to work and trade with their own rules, not those imposed by the West, which often do not suit them, or they are unfair to their economies since they are created to perpetuate Western economic dominance.

The war in Ukraine most likely will be lost, if we leave the country on its own. At some stage, European but also American voters will have enough of financing this lost case. Ukraine has 3 times or less the population of Russia and even with our military support, they will one day simply run out of people. The Russians have shown how determined they are in winning this. For them, it is all in now, either win or face more humiliation from the West, like the one they suffered back in the '90s. They will not allow this to happen, the West must expect this. The Russians have been preparing for this conflict, as the West were arming and training Ukrainian soldiers. We had the chance to stop it and do as Putin has asked us, allow negotiations between the two warring sides to take place, but with our arrogance and idiotic, short sighted, "treaty obsessed" legalities, we did not take this chance. We should have. Now that the war has started, there is simply no way back. The Russians will play all their cards to win this.

The US does not want an open conflict between the two, as it will lead to a WW3 and this one may become a nuclear one. So they will not put boots on the ground. Europe is already struggling financially, so why on Earth are we not giving up and save Ukrainian and Russian lives, our economy and world peace? And for what really, a decades old grudge between America and Russia? We do not have to be destroyed again as a continent, so that these two can settle their scores. Europe should distance itself from America, seek to restore its relations with Russia and be ready to join the new, multipolar world that is emerging. The age of American/Western hegemony is coming to an end, even the former British Prime Minister Tony Blair stated it recently. It does not have to be catastrophic or end up in a global, generalized conflict. We should let it happen and join the new era. It will be a fairer world, with Europe being one of the pillars, if of course we remain united and strong. If we do not, then our worse fears will be materialized and we will become a divided, poor continent, relying on those countries which up until now we scorned.

So far we tried so desperately to avoid this fate, by attaching ourselves on the military might of the USA. In this case though, we chose wrong. The USA's power is weakening and so will its appetite to always put up with our need for "mothering" and protection. Even if we remain attached to their hip, bigger blocks are prepared to challenge them and inevitably, we will be caught in the middle. A multipolar world is not all that bad and it looks inevitable at this stage. Why go in an all-out war with Russia and China with a potential annihilation, just so we help USA maintain their grip on the world, as we hope for a better and favourable treatment by them? Instead of taking the plunge into adulthood, truly unite as a continent, create our own foreign policy backed by a European defense mechanism, independent from the USA, and join this multipolar world and new reality, together with the challenges and opportunities it offers?

Source: Ovi Magazine