Is President Bola Tinubu losing grip?

Can anybody lift a finger without Tinubu's knowledge in Lagos State? Now it is being said that Tinubu's order to the Assembly to restore Mudasiru Obasa as speaker is being rebuffed by the lawmakers.

The Tinubu model of political organization impresses me a lot. It is the kind of model employed by Chief Obafemi Awolowo in the old Western Region that allowed the Action Group, AG of Chief Obafemi to select accurate and intelligent people to government. The legislators, the executive and the party officials had a common cause which makes agreement and decision making very swift. The ministers were selected on merit from among the very brilliant persons the Yorubas can present. My late dad told me, for example, that Chief Rotimi Williams, the justice minister in Awolowo's cabinet was so excellent that once a decision was taken that requires a bill for the House of Assembly everybody was so sure that the bill will be ready the following day with no amendment to it. Chief Awolowo, their leader was equally brilliant and all submitted to his leadership. Harold Smith, a colonial officer who served in Nigeria said that the AG was better organized even more than British political parties that had been in existence for centuries.

There are many that will doubt the brilliance and organizational ability of Bola Tinubu but those who face the truth will acknowledge that nobody can fault Tinubu as a political strategist and organizer. Whether he took the pattern of organization of Lagos branch of first, the Alliance for Democracy, AD, then the Action Congress, AC which he formed when the AD was falling apart and the APC from the AG, is not known but his organization in Lagos has assured peace in the state and has also assured some progress in the state of aquatic splendour. There is a development programme drawn up by select technocrats in the time of Tinubu's governorship which highlights development trajectory every governor after him must follow. Tinubu said, for example, that the governor that took the baton from him and did excellently, Babatunde Raji Fashola was an actualizer. That is, he was implementing what is already in the file. Akinwunmi Ambode the governor that succeeded Fashola tried to be his own man. He was shown the way out after one term. The message was that nobody will be allowed to deviate from the original plan.

But the unusual is happening in Lagos where Tinubu has been lord since 1999. He prides himself as a good headhunter and so he picks persons he thinks fit the bill to pick the party's nomination form. Whoever Tinubu backs is sure to be supported by the whole party apparatus and to be voted for by the Lagos wing of the party. Akinwunmi Ambode went into the primaries against Tinubu's choice, Babajide Sanwoolu and failed woefully. The failure was predictable. Disobey the order of Tinubu and go into political oblivion. Tinubu has all the structures of the party in Lagos in his firm grip. But something unusual is happening in the state and people have been asking whether Tinubu is losing grip. What happened to the Tinubu political magic? What has prompted that query is the political imbroglio at the Lagos State House of Assembly where the Speaker, Mr. Mudasiru Obasa was removed by 37 out of 39 members of the Assembly.

The initial news coming out was that the removal had the blessing of Bola Tinubu. It was said that while he was in Lagos at the end of the year in 2024, the case of Mudasiru Obasa was reported to him by the Governorship Advisory Council, a body that Tinubu set up to informally advise the governor. Therefore it was thought that the case of Obasa was concluded. But Obasa who was said to be away overseas when he was removed returned and boasted that he was still the speaker. Now news is surfacing that Tinubu did not approve the removal and that the Assembly acted without the knowledge of the Lagos boss. Sacrilege! Can anybody have done that in Lagos? Can anybody lift a finger without Tinubu's knowledge in Lagos State? Now it is being said that Tinubu's order to the Assembly to restore Mudasiru Obasa as speaker is being rebuffed by the lawmakers. Sacrilege! Lawmakers refusing to carry out the order of Tinubu in Lagos!

Ex-Speaker Mudasiru Obasa was the first to commit a sacrilege. Never before has anybody the guts to campaign for the governorship of Lagos State. When it gets to the appropriate time, Tinubu will announce the man who should file papers for nomination. But Mudasiru Obasa has been on the road under different guises lobbying to contest the governorship for months now. It is not certain he received the blessing of Tinubu. Though it is disguised, it is an open secret in Lagos. Apart from this Obasa has become so arrogant in his disposition. He said at a time that he was not less than those who have been governors in Lagos which must include Tinubu himself. Apart from arrogance, Obasa always display flagrant disrespect for the sitting governor, Babajide Sanwoolu. That angered people even outside of their party and even the press. When Obasa was removed, it was celebrated by the public as that which was due. Obasa's audacity is outside of known Lagos State procedure for nomination of governors. What gave Obasa that audacity? What has become of the Tinubu magical power? Was Obasa challenging the authority of Tinubu?

Whether Obasa was or not, it is certain that there are challenges to the power of Tinubu in Lagos. It is reported that the new speaker, Mojisola Meranda, a woman who was the deputy to Obasa before the removal of her boss and her elevation to speakership, has threatened to resign if she's removed and Obasa restored. What will become of Obasa if the removal remains? Will he defect to another party and contest from there. Already his removal is sending jitters to the PDP. Some members of PDP are saying though their doors are open to him but he should come to queue behind those who have been there. There will be no automatic ticket for him is the implication of the threat. If Obasa is not restored and he defects to PDP or another political party, what political weight can he muster against Bola Tinubu? Is Mudasiru Obasa exploiting the absence of Tinubu from Lagos to do his work as the elected president of Nigeria in Abuja, the nation's capital? Tinubu's presidency gives him more power. It is unlikely that Obasa will be able to move against him in Lagos. But nothing must be left to chance. Tinubu was defeated in his power base of Lagos State in the presidential election in 2023 and his candidate for governorship Babajide Sanwoolu narrowly missed being defeated. Observers say Sanwoolu's election was rigged. They say that his poor performance in the election fuelled the disrespect of Obasa for Sanwoolu whom he disparaged at every turn, both official and unofficial. It is impossible that Tinubu did not know about Obasa’s moves to be governor and his disguised secret lobbying. Why has Tinubu done nothing to stop him, observers are asking? Does that indicate a possession of some clout by Obasa that can successfully challenge Tinubu in Lagos? Obasa has been a legislator since 2015. Some party members are saying that Obasa is not an indigene of Lagos. The clamour for an indigenous governor has been very strident recently.

What will be the implication of the resignation of Mojisola Meranda the new speaker? Does she have a constituency that can topple the Tinubu magic in Lagos? Questions and questions but it is certain the next few months will be worth watching in Lagos. Nobody is in doubt of Tinubu’s political sagacity and great ability for political battles. Tinubu will certainly win but the current battle is a very severe strain on Tinubu's political model. If it stands it will recommend itself for adoption on a larger scale in the country. If it fails it might just signify that there is no power arrangement that cannot be successfully challenged sooner or later.

Tunde Akande is both a journalist and pastor. He earned a Master's degree in Mass Communication from the University of Lagos