Nigeria at a critical crossroads

Atiku, Tinubu and Obi

Nigeria is in a state of emergency, diminutive and stormy petrel of Northern politics, and former governor of Kaduna state, Nasir El-Rufai, who confronted the bandits ravaging his state when he said he will never negotiate with them, blurted out recently. Nasir El-Rufai, it was that single-handedly disrupted Muhammadu Buhari's efforts to scuttle the presidential ambition of Bola Tinubu, current president when Buhari told Godwin Emefiele, former governor of the Central Bank to withdraw cash from circulation thus disabling Nigerians to get money to transport themselves to vote or to live their lives or for politicians to get cash to buy votes. El-Rufai took Buhari to the Supreme Court and got judgement that Buhari and Emefiele acted unconstitutionally.

Thereafter Bola Tinubu won the presidential elections, great thanks to Nasir El-Rufai who mobilized for him in the Northwest region, but then Tinubu schemed Rufai out of his government. He tactically got the Senate to disqualify him to be a minister in the Tinubu administration. But the organizers of a recent conference on strengthtening democracy in Nigeria could not resist to have Nasir El-Rufai on its panel to look into necessary reforms in Nigeria's democracy so that the process of leadership recruitment which has always ended up with very bad leaders and consequent bad governance may end. El-Rufai worried that in Kaduna state where he was governor the recruitment process ends up producing illiterates as if illiteracy is the qualification for political leadership in Nigeria. He thinks even though the constitutional provision to qualify for political office is the School Certificate, that should be the minimum. Reuben Abati, a journalist with Arise Television picked a quarrel with El-Rufai describing his statement that illiterates are recruited into leadership in Nigeria as arrogant and hypocritical. Abati thought El-Rufai is not the only brilliant person in Nigeria, that there are many brilliant persons in Nigeria and that Rufai himself has benefitted from the system both as a member of the PDP and now APC. He said Rufai was bitter over his non-involvement in Tinubu's cabinet, hence his castigation of the system. Reuben Abati may have to listen to the video of El-Rufai's statement again. There was no iota of arrogance there. Nigeria's leadership recruitment qualification has been so pegged as to allow many square pegs in round holes because of the North's dislike for modern education. That tendency for illiterates to flock to politics is also creeping to the more educationally advanced southern part of Nigeria. Because money is the requirement for participation in politics and because the more educated don't have money, hence they stand aloof, thus leaving the space wide open for illiterates.

El-Rufai was also worried that the political parties are becoming more and more of a one-man-show because they lack internal democracy. The APC to which he belongs has not in the last two years held any caucus meetings. The parties don't also have manifesto or when they have like the APC, they don't follow it. For a remedy, El-Rufai recommended that the nation must go back to the era of the National Party of Nigeria, NPN which to him was a party well-run on democratic basis in Nigeria's Second Republic. But this proscribed party he recommended for Nigeria again could not save democracy in its own time. It indeed ran Nigeria aground, had members in government who stole so much as to let the economy of the nation hit the rock causing the military to intervene. The party that created a pathway in democracy and good political party organization was the Unity Party of Nigeria, UPN put together by Chief Obafemi Awolowo. By the time the military lifted the ban on democracy, the very day, Chief Obafemi Awolowo had ready the party manifesto, anthem, key drivers and a good structure. Other parties of those days feared Awolowo's organizational skill and brilliance and he was therefore the driving force for them to organize themselves effectively. The UPN was the party to beat. The UPN and the Action Group, AG, that preceeded it both put together by Chief Obafemi Awolowo are a study for party organization in Nigeria.

Despite the seriousness of the conference, the panelists and the audience still enjoyed rib-cracking jokes that came from statements made by the politicians. One panelist shared his experience when he joined the former governor of Rivers State, Dr Peter Odili’s campaign train in Port-Harcourt. They had gone to the stadium in Port-Harcourt to campaign. The stadium was packed full but after two hours of campaign, the stadium became empty prompting him to ask somebody what happened. “Why did the people leave?” He was told: "The crowd was paid for only two hours." The audience and the panellists burst into laughter. They laughed because the panelist mentioned one of the most important reasons why democracy as practiced in Nigeria won't ever recruit good leaders. And the point is that money is used to invite people to hear politicians campaign and money is used to induce them to vote. The politician a Nigerian would vote for is not necessarily the most brilliant or the one that has better programmes for his welfare but the one who pays him the highest amount of money. The audience had hardly recovered from their outbursts of laughter when another notable politician and a very outspoken one at that, Rotimi Amaechi, a former governor of Rivers State and a former minister of transport in the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari got the microphone. First he apologized to Aminu Tambuwal with whom he agreed and prayed that none of them will talk in the conference. He didn't think the prayer of Tambuwal was answered because he had decided to talk. The audience roared in laughter.

Rotimi Amaechi also told the audience about the influence of money in Nigeria's democracy. He gave an experience when he was part of a campaign at the Eagles Square, in Abuja planned against the administration of former President Goodluck Jonathan. He had given people "transport" money, a euphemism for bribe to attend the campaign but they came dressed in the uniform on which was printed the name of Goodluck Jonathan. In other words they got "transport" money from two sources, Rotimi Amaechi and whoever was acting for Dr. Goodluck Jonathan. Furthermore, he said the reason why elections don't produce good leaders is because votes are bought and sold. He charged Nigerians to be ready to fight for their votes. He gave the example of the election of Ibrahim Shekarau, a former governor of Kano State; that INEC declared him winner only because the election umpire knew it couldn't do otherwise because the people of Kano had risen up to fight for their votes. "Nigerian politicians exist to maim, steal, kill, destroy and remain in power. Nobody, including me will give you power except you rise to fight for it," Amaechi reiterated. Though a very damning revelation which expectedly attracted the condemnation of the Tinubu administration, still, the crowd roared in laughter.

Therein lies the problem of democracy in Nigeria, the very politicians who are involved were telling Nigerians how they win their elections. Rotimi Amaechi was a little furious that Nigerians were laughing, accusing them: "That's why they are stealing your votes and why you are not having good governance." The atmosphere at the conference shows that the panellists who are politicians are well aware that the military is lurking in the shadow and that continuing maladministration may invite a coup d'etat again. El-Rufai said for Nigerians who are in their 60s, most have lived their years under military administration. El-Rufai said he was part of a poll that shows that 75 percent of Nigerians say they will not vote in the next election cycle in 2027. Why would they want to vote? The man they brought in as president and the men they brought in as governors have slowly asphyxiated life out of them. Only 26 percent of Nigerians voted to elect President Bola Tinubu. Yet there are over 200 million Nigerians. It's as though Nigeria is jinxed, the present system and the men and women that run it can never change. They benefit tremendously from it. The present situation seems more ugly now that all hope of a better election appears like a mirage.

What then is the solution? The same politicians who face Nigerians telling them how they have been cheating them and stealing their votes are the same people that will go back to the field and repeat the same thing. The same Nigerians who were either in the audience or watching the conference on television or hearing it on radio or reading in newspapers are the same people who will still sell their votes. What then should be done? There is no doubt that a people's constitution is very necessary. The 1999 constitution is not a people's constitution and it contains so many anti-people provisions such that no free and fair election that will reflect the views of the people can hold under it. As it is, the way and manner elections are structured in Nigeria now, Nigerians remain a captive audience. Nothing can change the current crop of politicians. Nobody can wrest power from them as Rotimi Amaechi said. So what is the solution? Except there be a revolution, another Amaechi prescription, there can never be a new Nigeria. Taking Nigeria back to the era of NPN which produced a lacklustre Alhaji Shehu Shagari as president that allowed Nigeria's money to be stolen under his watch as president is no solution. NPN offers no viable solution. A change of personnel is the only solution. And that will require a revolution.

Tunde Akande is both a journalist and pastor. He earned a Master's degree in Mass Communication from the University of Lagos