Nigeria's economic conundrum,: way out

There are many other reasons why this palliative policy must be dropped, but what must replace it? Nigerians don't need palliatives. Nigerians must rather be encouraged to work and earn their living.

President Bola Tinubu

It does not appear Nigeria will come out of her economic woes anytime soon. The signals are not very clear at all. The election that brought Bola Ahmed Tinubu into office was rancorous because the three frontline contestants were very ambitious about winning. Each of them thought he was the best to get Nigeria out of the dire straits that years of economic brigandage and bad governance has gotten the country. Atiku Abubakar, a serial contender was very determined, so also was newcomer Peter Obi who seemed angry with the bad ways Nigeria had been handled in the past that has brought the nation down on her knees. He found favour with the youth who are determined to make a change in their generation. Tinubu who was eventually declared by the nation's election umpire, INEC as winner, had been at it almost all his life. He told his predecessor that becoming the president of Nigeria was a lifelong ambition. He told the electorates he was prepared for the job. Nobody could doubt him, he had been a governor in Lagos State and had up to date installed all governors in that state in every election cycle. He literally supplied the intelligence, money and strategy that gave his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari the presidency. Tinubu is reputed to be an excellent headhunter.

But two months into his presidency, Tinubu seems to be losing bearing. He has men and women, technocrats around him, he has not failed on that. He is implementing the agenda drawn up for him. When from the podium on which he was inaugurated he consigned the fuel subsidy into the dunghill of history, he was doing what his technocrats asked him to do. He has ordered a merger of official and parallel forex rates, he has suspended the Central Bank Governor, got him arrested for investigation and appointed another person in acting capacity, he has replaced the military leader his predecessor brought in from outside to the corruption-riddled Customs and Excise Department, and appointed an insider. In addition, he has declared a state of emergency in food security and brought food security within the purview of the National Security Adviser, he has retired and replaced the military chiefs, he has declared that he would not fund universities again, that the country can't afford to bear the costs, he has therefore replaced direct funding with a students’ loan program which he says is targeted to the poor in the society. President Tinubu has even called for the establishment of an ECOWAS military standby force to combat coups in the West Africa sub-region, a call which perhaps reads to the shaky mind of the president as to possible instability that his tough domestic policies can engender. But it is in the latest policy of the federal government to give palliatives to the poor as a result of the hyperinflation generated by the subsidy removal, the naira floating and the 82 percent increase in import duty caused by astronomical jump in naira to dollar conversion rate that a lie is being put to the popular acclaim that Tinubu is well-prepared for the job.

The idea of the palliative is not new, it was floated at the tail end of the Buhari administration. It must likely have been initiated by the World Bank that has been pressing Nigeria to stop the subsidy. Ibrahim Babangida, ex military leader, Sanni Abacha, the military successor to the interim government of Chief Ernest Shonekan, Olusegun Obasanjo, at his second coming as first civilian president at the return of power from the military to the civilians in 1999, and President Goodluck Jonathan, all battled over the oil subsidy removal and did exactly what the Tinubu administration is planning to do. They all threw money at the poor. Abacha set up the Petroleum Trust Fund, PTF and appointed Buhari as Chairman of the PTF. Buhari spent the money in controversial circumstances which include favouritism to his north and there were allegations of sleaze in that organisation which warranted a probe panel of the PTF by the Obasanjo administration. Also, Obasanjo set up a poverty reduction programme and bought and asked state governments to also buy tricycles christened "Keke Napep" which was distributed to people with the aim to alleviate poverty. The ill-conceived strategy rather than alleviate poverty aggravated it. President Goodluck Jonathan promised to spend earnings from subsidy removed, which was angrily resisted by Nigerians in fierce demonstrations, on some social beneficial projects. Nigeria did not see this materialize.

There are many things that will make the current palliative policy more prone to failure than the ones before it. That it is a World Bank loan facility make it highly suspect of the international manipulation as usual. The World Bank as it is called is a bank that must give out loans and collect interests on the them. So the bank when it concerns third world nations like Nigeria is more concerned with making money than giving sound economic advice. That the Buhari administration embraced the loan is not a surprise because Buhari and his team lack the capacity for rigorous thinking. Buhari will rather listen to his relatives and the cabal he surrounded himself with. But it is very alarming that Tinubu, with all the reputation of big cranial capacity he claims and the technocrats around him will also fall back on the World Bank advised palliatives that has failed often and often in the past. The only logical explanation for the Tinubu embrace of the policy is that neither Tinubu nor his advisers are also ready for the job. It is important to restate that Peter Obi warned over and over in his campaign that it is wrong to borrow money for consumption. Tinubu's palliative is no more than borrowing money to feed the so called poor. They will eat and after that they will have nothing to eat again.

Even if we imagine the money will feed the poor, we have to consider the number that will be fed. By the recent statistics collected by the National Bureau of Statistics, 133 million Nigerians are in multidimensional poverty. Tinubu's 12 million beneficiaries are not more than a mere drop in an ocean of grinding poverty. It can't be true that the amount will have a multiplier effect of another 60 million. This is mere guess work because that 8000 naira earmarked for the 12 million households is worth nothing due to current runway inflation of 22.79 percent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. It shows that Tinubu and his advisers have since lost touch with the reality of poverty and prices of foodstuffs in Nigeria.

How would the 12 million households be selected out of the 133 million in multidimensional poverty in Nigeria? Who will be the lucky ones, and what will be the parameters for the selection? Like it happended during the Buhari administration, so it will happen now that only APC party members will be selected. What made these party members more important than other Nigerians. Like other palliatives before it, the money will go into private pockets. Even if it will not, distributing money as Buhari did and as Tinubu plan to do will end up being a most foolish thing to do. It will be money down the drain in unproductivity. There are many other reasons why this palliative policy must be dropped, but what must replace it? Nigerians don't need palliatives. Nigerians must rather be encouraged to work and earn their living. Nigerians must get used to working as a means of living. Nigerians are very hungry, those who are in touch with the grassroots will readily acknowledge this. So what Nigerians need is whatever will take them out of poverty. The priority is in this order; security, food, education, good health, etc. Tinubu must never negotiate with the bandits neither must he negotiate with Boko Haram. He must stop all his relationship with Asari Dokubo, the Niger Delta militant. Asari Dokubo is an enemy of peace. The military must wipe out the bandits from the bush. President Tinubu must continue to give the Southeast their due whether they voted for him or not. He must restructure the country. As he does these, he will neutralize Nnamdi Kanu and his co-travellers.

Tinubu must encourage ranching in the North where the Fulani herdsmen are already accepted. Establishing ranches for them with loans secured with single digit interest in the North will not be difficult. Then whatever Buhari did in railways must be consolidated and greatly improved upon. Rail must run across the nation. When cows are slaughtered in ranches which are privately owned, the meat will be transported to the south where they are eaten. Enough of eating 'ponmo' ( cow hide) in the Southwest, the hides must now be processed into leather to feed our many cobblers who already are producing our shoes, belts, women's handbags, wristwatch bands etc. Some of the people Tinubu want to give this 8000 naira are in this group of artisans. They have their trade but they need help to take their trade to a higher level and earn money to take care of themselves. They don't need palliatives, they need work and they can be employers too. Let their work put food on their tables. It is not true as Dele Alake, Tinubu's spokesperson said that food is available but not affordable. Food is no longer available and it is not only the herders that have sent the famers away from the farm. All the land that was used to grow food in the past have been built up as houses due to rapid urbanisation, especially in the south. This is due to lack of good planning. Henceforth and immediately, land in Nigeria must be zoned into agriculture, industrial and housing belts and the belts must be strictly adhered to. Ownership of land must change, government must hold land on behalf of the people. Our agriculture plan must be very creative and mechanised. We must start to think for ourselves and not depend on any foreign strategy. Our universities teachers must stop to be promoted like civil servants. It must no longer be only publish and be promoted, but innovate and be promoted. Enough of paperwork that copy material from one another. We need practical research that can solve our problems. Our people need food. The nation needs products and innovation that can earn foreign exchange. Foreign exchange availability is not a consequence of some capitalist manipulation of rates and prices but of productivity. It is simple economics. China's currency is strong because China is producing for export.

On the whole, Tinubu has to rethink his policy not to fund education, it is his worst pronouncement so far that will keep Nigerians perpetually in poverty. Nothing solves poverty than well-planned and executed educational programme. The right thing to do now if Tinubu wants to demonstrate to Nigerians that he is bold and courageous is to sack those who sold him on that retrogressive education policy. Agriculture and education can be blended at all levels of our education system. There is a creative way the universities can fund themselves, there is a way they can produce food for the country to eat and to export. Agriculture is our greatest strength, not oil or any mineral resources. Tinubu and his team will only have to think creatively. Nigeria can come out of its economic conundrum but Tinubu must be ready to jettison all these IMF and World Bank inspired neo-colonial policies, rather he should get himself and Nigerians to think creatively to solve the myriad of challenges starring us in the face.

Tunde Akande is both a journalist and pastor. He earned a Master's degree in Mass Communication from the University of Lagos.