Recovering from the 2023 elections trauma
The key issues of contestations in the elections are all cast in ethno-regional and religious terms.
As the cacophony of bigotry gets lauder, no one is even posing the key question: Was the 2023 general elections organised in SUBSTANTIAL COMPLAINCE WITH THE ELECTORAL ACT? If and when we return to this question, we may begin to find out that all the identity questions posed are real AND in addition, the elections have substantial credibility if you ask all the powerful incumbent governors who failed to get the tickets to their normal retirement home, the Senate.
The 2023 general elections have taken their pride of place in the long line of elections that have traumatised Nigerians due to the extremely high levels of ethno-regional and religious bigotry that marked them. The 1964 elections might have been the most acrimonious, following the controversy that came on the heels of the rejection of the 1962 census and divergent attitudes to the 1963 census, alongside the creation of the Midwest and then “Operation Wetie” in Western Nigeria. In short, all the key ingredients pertaining to the survival of the Nigerian state were on the table in that election. The result was a complete breakdown of public trust and the civil war. The core lesson from the 1964 elections was that the abuse of powers of incumbency to impose the will of a section of the political class on the people was a threat to the survival of the state itself. The outcome was that the First Republic fell.
The next major trauma for the Nigerian state on elections was in 1983. The ruling National Party of Nigeria steered the polls from the arithmetical “normal” rigging to the exponential level of creating new results sheets that bear no resemblance with numbers from the polling units. The centre of the trauma was the attempted gubernatorial imposition of Omoboriowo over Ajasin, and that trauma of the Ondo people represented the angst of the entire nation, with a clear question posed: why bother with elections if you can write any result you like? A maigaskiya (man of truth) called Major-General Muhammadu Buhari stepped up, and disturbed the transition-to-new year (1983 to 1984) parties with a coup d’état. The lesson from the 1983 elections was that the abuse of powers of incumbency to impose the will of a section of the political class over the others was a threat to the survival of the state itself. The outcome was that the Second Republic fell.
The next trauma was the 12th June, 1993 election, when the process was successfully conducted. MKO Abiola won and it was a beautiful occasion for nation building, with both a transition from military to civilian rule and power shift from the North to the South occurring at the same time. A certain General Ibrahim Babangida decided that power was too sweet and refused to hand it over, precipitating a major crisis of survival for the Nigerian state. The lesson from the 12th June election was the abuse of the powers of incumbency to impose the will of a section of the militaro-political class over the others, and this constituted a threat to the survival of the state itself. The political transition programme collapsed, the junta went into crisis and General Sani Abacha, the most brutal junta member, took over power, until he was removed from the scene with help from two “exotic” prostitutes.
Right from the beginning, the elections were defined by the determination of Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling APC to contest with a Muslim-Muslim ticket and the religious label stuck. A new phenomenon emerged on the political terrain with the entry of Peter Obi on a platform of youth mobilisation, for the establishment of a competent and technocratic government. His label failed to stick.
Then a strange thing happened, trauma took leave from Nigerian elections. The two most rigged elections in Nigerian history, in my assessment, were the 2003 and 2007 elections, where the 1983 rule book on the most efficient way of rigging through the re-writing of result sheets was re-invented, and INEC rewrote results with reckless abandon. Turnout in the said elections was very high, not because people came out to vote, but because officials were ready to write that they came out. We screamed a little bit but the mobilisation of ethno-religious bigotry was minimal and civil society, where I was, took the decision to simply focus on improving the integrity of future elections. The lessons from the 2003 and 2007 elections were – don’t bother, your votes will not be counted. Nonetheless, we did not scream bigotry.
Then the Nigerian magic started to happen at the point of the nation’s lowest political despondency. President Goodluck Jonathan appointed a competent man with integrity called Attahiru Jega as INEC chairman and then a series of reforms, leading to a steady improvement in the credibility and integrity of Nigerian elections started. The next Chairman, Mahmoud Yakubu sustained the reforms and the 2023 elections can in no way be considered to be on the list of the most rigged elections in our history. The lesson from the 2023 elections is that technical improvements anchored on the successful use of the BVAS voters accreditation system was not sufficient to prevent one of the most explosive mobilisation and expressions of ethno-regional and religious bigotry related to elections in our history.
Right from the beginning, the elections were defined by the determination of Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling APC to contest with a Muslim-Muslim ticket and the religious label stuck. A new phenomenon emerged on the political terrain with the entry of Peter Obi on a platform of youth mobilisation, for the establishment of a competent and technocratic government. This label failed to stick. Irrespective of what he and his movement wanted, political reductionism brought them down to the level of the Christian alternative to the Muslim-Muslim ticket. The clergy on both sides, but even worse, the intellectuals on both sides, sealed the deal by producing massive evidence that the core issues that defined the elections were ethnicity and religion.
The key issues of contestations in the elections are all cast in ethno-regional and religious terms. Power shift to the South. In the South, is it the turn of the Igbo or the Yoruba? The Muslim-Muslim ticket is the marginalisation of Christians. Voter suppression was used against some ethnic groups, mainly the Igbo.
The Electoral Commission played its part with the failure of the electronic transmission of results from polling units to the IReV public portal. The failure became evidence that the election was rigged and non-transmission was evidence of the grand INEC conspiracy. No one was interested in hearing that the integrity test was BVAS and for the most part it worked. Serious discussions of the elections have become very difficult because the partisans have taken their positions and they repeat their conclusions to justify their bigotry.
The key issues of contestations in the elections are all cast in ethno-regional and religious terms. Power shift to the South. In the South, is it the turn of the Igbo or the Yoruba? The Muslim-Muslim ticket is the marginalisation of Christians. Voter suppression was used against some ethnic groups, mainly the Igbo. The Labour Party Vice Presidential candidate is a fascist because he said Tinubu is not even qualified to run, says our Nobel Laureate, Wole Soyinka. No replied our great novelist, Chimamanda Adichie, the fascist is Mahmoud Yakubu, the INEC chairman. When fascism is reduced to an invective against individuals, clearly, the purpose is to stop the conversation.
As the cacophony of bigotry gets lauder, no one is even posing the key question: Was the 2023 general elections organised in SUBSTANTIAL COMPLAINCE WITH THE ELECTORAL ACT? If and when we return to this question, we may begin to find out that all the identity questions posed are real AND in addition, the elections have substantial credibility if you ask all the powerful incumbent governors who failed to get the tickets to their normal retirement home, the Senate. The voters who are so happy that they stopped their hated governors from continuing in power may have even more interesting narratives to share. When we get to these conversations, we will get on the pathway to recovering from our collective trauma over the 2023 general elections.
A professor of Political Science and development consultant/expert, Jibrin Ibrahim is a Senior Fellow of the Centre for Democracy and Development, and Chair of the Editorial Board of PREMIUM TIMES.