SOUTHEAST POLITICAL ELITE AND THE ONGOING BLAME GAME
The inability of the major ethnic groups in the South to work together started at Independence.
When the Southern Governors at their Forum made their famous declaration that the next President must come from the South, the informed observers knew that it was targeted to strengthen their Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP) colleagues who made up eight out of its thirteen governors. Therefore, All Progressives Party (APC) Governor Dave Umahi was wrongfooted when he accused his colleagues from South-South and Southwest of acting in bad faith by seeking the tickets of their parties for the next presidential election. He was directly accusing his APC colleagues from the Southwest since the party does not have any governor in the South-South zone. His address which was also presented to an APC President on a working visit to Ebonyi was also an indicator of the target of his frustration. He could not have been addressing governors elected on the platform of PDP which he fled from on the same basis. That would be absurd since they don't owe any APC person an explanation as to how their flag bearer would emerge.
His stand to canvass for an open contest that will negate the collective stand of the Southern Governors Forum on zoning is subtle support for a flag bearer to emerge from the North on the platform of APC. This is not without historical precedents.
The handshake across River Niger that the Ikemba of Nnewi, Chukwuemeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu advocated before his demise remains a mirage that it had been. The inability of the major ethnic groups in the South to work together started politically started at Independence. The Northern Region was the preferred partner of the East in the hung parliament. In the Second Republic, it was the same as Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP), the dominant party in the East opted to align with the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) against the dominant Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) in the West.
Not many Nigerians will remember that even in the June 12, 1993 election that gave a pan Nigerian mandate to Chief Moshood Abiola, the southeast voted differently. It was only Anambra State that Abiola won with 58 percent of the votes. The remaining states of Abia, Enugu, and Imo gave the majority of their votes to Alhaji Dawakin Tofa, the opposing candidate from Kano State who could not even win in his state. There was no canvassing for zoning in that election Abiola won on personal recognition. The election was annulled on the basis of a legal issue orchestrated by Arthur Nzeribe who passed on recently. Nzeribe hailed from Imo State, one of the southeast states that voted for Tofa. Abiola died in the process of validating his mandate.
It was the injustice of the annulment and the attempt to pacify the Southwest where he hailed from that led to the zoning of the president to the area in the 1999 elections. The presidential ticket of the anointed party of the era, PDP, which was conceded was indeed fiercely contested by former Vice President Alex Ekwueme from the Southeast in total disregard of the mood of that moment. It was not a baked cake waiting for delivery and consumption by Chief Olusegun Obasanjo and his people of the Southwest.
If a replay of the Jos PDP Convention of 1999 is about to play out in 2022 APC Primaries with the participation of other Southerners, it should not be a cause for name-calling and blame game. It should be a moment for sober reflection. It should serve as a reminder that politicians are like donkeys with long memories.
The Southwest elite has been more accommodating in this respect than their South East colleagues. In the last (2019) elections, APC and PDP picked their candidate for Vice President from the Southwest and Southeast respectively. Many may not remember that Atiku Abubakar of PDP with a running mate, Peter Obi, from the Southeast won the two southwest states of Oyo and Ondo. Overall in the zone, Buhari of APC running with the son of the soil, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo won with a slight margin of only 53.4 percent of the votes cast. Over 47 percent of the voters actually voted for Atiku/Obi ticket. There is no basis whatsoever to compare this performance with just about 19 percent of the voters who voted for Buhari/Osinbajo in the Southeast.
The political elite in the Southwest cannot afford to succumb to name-calling tinted with blackmail. The slogan "we will throw it away if we cannot have it" as being played by their Southeast colleagues should not be a cause for concern. If the latter had a history of political injustice of the magnitude inflicted on Abiola and by extension the Southwest, it should be presented for objective assessment.
By the time the elections are over and the votes counted, the Southwest elite will be vindicated. Mark it, southeast will vote for PDP whose presidential candidate predictably will be from the North with his running mate from the area. Any presidential candidate of APC other than a South Easterner will not fly in the zone. It is APC that is being programmed to fail if the tentative political alignment of the core North and the Southwest that birthed the Buhari administration is jettisoned. That is the reality.
Sina Akande is a public affairs analyst. He writes from Jos, Plateau State.
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