The clash of the titans in Nigeria's politics

The ADC and APC confrontation offer no different hope. Members of the two parties are the same who have led Nigeria down a path of ruin.

The elections of 2015 was one that was very intense that threatened the corporate existence of Nigeria in many ways. The All Progressives Congress (APC), a coalition of many legacy parties, who are strange bedfellows was put together to dislodge the sitting President Goodluck Jonathan. Muhammadu Buhari, a retired major-general known for his tyranny when he seized power through the gun in December 1983, was seeking to return to power through the ballot after he had failed three times. He was always the northern candidate who was unacceptable to the south because of his known tyranny and tribal and religious bigotry. But Bola Tinubu had started a coalition and a well-orchestrated political and well-researched public relations strategy that worked and changed the perception of Buhari by Nigerians, especially those from the south.

Buhari won or was declared to have won; nobody wins election in Nigeria by merit but by manipulation. Buhari and his APC coalition had thought and made spirited efforts to resist the government of Goodluck Jonathan if he refused to vacate the seat. It was reported that he and some members of his coalition prominent, among whom was Nasir El Rufai, had allegedly imported some foreign Fulani herders to start mayhem should Jonathan refuse to vacate power. But thanks to the usual Nigerian miraculous escape from problems that sink other nations of her experience and complexity, Goodluck Jonathan contrary to the advice of his cabal to hang on to power left quietly. That singular humble act of transmitting power from one civilian administration to another almost wiped off all the mal-administration and deep corruption of the Goodluck Jonathan administration, such that he instantly became the toast of the international community. Though the campaign of Buhari changed his public perception for a while, it did not change Buhari’s persona; Buhari became more tyrannical and bigoted. He won another election in 2019 not by popularity, but by a combination of electoral manipulation and rigging. In 2023, Nigeria witnessed another round of an intense make-or-break election cycle.

Peter Obi, an Igbo, shot up as a northern star and gave hope to many Nigerians that Nigeria will have a real shot at good governance. He was what the Igbo of the Eastern Nigeria have been looking for, an opportunity to clinch the prized presidential ticket, and so they gave him the best support, which included an appeal to other sections of the country. Though Obi was the revelation of that election year, the victory went the way of Bola Tinubu, the candidate of Buhari's APC. Bola Tinubu is an old political warhorse, with a lot of political baggage and accusations on his back. He had the Supreme Court behind him when the apex court gave him victory. But Bola Tinubu seem to have frittered away that victory with his very bad performance after only two years in office as the president. Nigerians are poorer, and though the presidency had regaled and deceived Nigerians with economic metrics, the real lives of Nigerians are not any better. Recently the presidency spokesperson, Bayo Onanuga had to criticize the same metrics he and the media team of the president had used to convince Nigerians that the economy was on a jollyride, and that what lacklustre Muhammadu Buhari did in driving down the economy had been undone, and the worst is behind Nigeria.

Brilliant Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, departing African Development Bank president, had said comparing the GDP of Nigeria in 1960 with that of 2025, the 1960 economy was far better than 2025. Bayo Onanuga to debunk Adesina's analysis told a bewildered Nigerians that GDP was not a good measure of economic performance. Bayo told a lie, the truth is that Bola Tinubu had failed woefully. Electricity, which Bola Tinubu promised will be brought to constant supply remains epileptic. Though Adebayo Adelabu, the dull and drab minister of power, stratified its supply offering the elite class as with other Tinubu's policies an unfair supply far above the poor, every Nigerian is still complaining of either huge cost or poor supply at the same time. This bad performance has offered the enemies of Tinubu an opportunity to begin to plot his removal in the 2027 elections. Pioneered by Nasir El Rufai, a former member of the APC, that produced Bola Tinubu as president in which Rufai played very prominent role, a coalition that recently launched itself in a political party, African Democratic Congress (ADC), which includes all shades of people from the main political parties. The coalition, which is seeking registration with the INEC as a political party, moved to the ADC reportedly because it thought it might not be registered early enough because of many registration procedures which INEC has said it will not abandon despite any public pressure.

Prominent members of the ADC, who defected into it recently are well-known to Nigerians. They have played a prominent part in Nigeria's political and economic trajectory. They have been in the PDP, APC, SDP, LP and other parties. They have been state governors, ministers, and commissioners in states etc. They are people who have sat in the same cabinets with current leaders of the APC, the current party leading the federal government. But Nigeria is not running a two-party system. When the APC was formed as a coalition of different parties in which President Bola Tinubu was the chief motivator, many commentators thought Nigeria had finally arrived at a two-party system like the US, which they thought was good for Nigeria's multi-ethnic politics. How wrong they were because each group in the coalition soon behaved differently from others. The ADC and APC confrontation offer no different hope. Members of the two parties are the same, who have led Nigeria down a path of ruin.

The first opportunity Nigeria may harvest from this intra-elite fight is the knowledge of the evils these politicians have done in the past. For example, the FCT minister, Nyesom Wike, who is battling in the PDP with Seyi Makinde, governor of Oyo state, who is rumoured to be interested in the presidential ticket of the party, is pointing accusing fingers at Rotimi Amaechi, the former minister of transport under the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari. According to Wike, President Tinubu should open the forensic audit of the NNDC to the public. He alleged it contained a N4 billion monthly payment to a company that is connected to the wife of Rotimi Amaechi. Amaechi was a two-term governor of Rivers State, a prominent South-South state. That if true is a devastating arrow against the ambition of Rotimi Amaechi, who has declared his ambition to be president, even declaring that he would do only one term, a strategy to appeal to the North that is ever angling to be in power for an eternity. Wike says that report, which was ordered by former president Buhari was kept away from the public view by Abubakar Malami, the minister of justice and attorney-general under Buhari.

I don't think as the confrontation gets to a head in the quest to dislodge him from office, President Bola Tinubu would want to keep that report from the public. But what did the report say about the current Senate president, Godswill Akpabio, a known Tinubu supporter and a former minister of the Niger Delta. If the can of worms includes him, Tinubu may want to hold back. But at least newshounds know there is such a can of worms in the presidency and must stretch out its antenna to bring it out to Nigerians. Rotimi Amaechi is yet to reply to the accusations, but the Rivers State branch of the APC has said it is unfair to drag the wives of politicians into political mudslinging. Many Nigerians won't think so. They want to know how much of their money has been spirited away by politicians and has left them pauperized. Clearly, Nigerians who have wondered what kind of man Peter Obi is now have an opportunity to uncover him. The short period between Peter Obi's foray into the presidential contest did not allow them to probe this new man during the last national elections. They know his dalliance with General Sanni Abacha and his chairmanship of the ports decongestion committee, an on the spot appointment given him by Abacha whose private account could not be differentiated from the account of the Central Bank of Nigeria. Obi is of the ADC coalition and his declaration that he would not mind running for just one-term of four years may be a window to uncovering the character of Peter Obi, the supposedly humble man who keeps his promises and does not tell lies.

If Obi is given the presidential ticket of the ADC and he wins, will he keep his promise to serve only four years? That does not look likely to be true. Not with an Igbo man -an ethnic group, which in all honesty has been precluded from the presidency for too long a time. It is most likely a promise no Igbo man can honestly keep, considering the experience of the Igbo in national politics. Goodluck Jonathan who used the name of Igbo iconic politician, Azikiwe, to gain political prominence made a similar promise, but reneged when his Ijaw ethnic nationality and many Igbo who filled his government put pressure on him to contest a second time. Obi shows himself by that promise as one who is very desperate for power and may not be willing to make a definitive impact in the nation. Or one who would renege once he takes the reins of power.

Another rumour which Obi is yet to debunk is that he has secretly agreed to be vice-president to Atiku Abubakar, the man, who despite his 78 years of age, still wants to be Nigeria's president. If this has happened, then the loyalty of Obi is in doubt. The move would cost him support from his Igbo kith and kin. It would also cost him the support of Yoruba youth who see him as a national candidate. Obi's move to be running mate to Atiku Abubakar will heighten the tension between the Yoruba and Igbo. In the 2023 elections, that tension almost cost the nation its unity, and it is still raging even now. Since that announcement some Yoruba have been asking to know what role Obi played in the annulment of the 1993 presidential election, presumably won by MKO Abiola. There will be more revelations. For example, Nyesom Wike is asking Hadi Sirika, Buhari's aviation minister, "Where is Air Nigeria?" Hadi Sirika is alleged to have stolen some billions in various deals in ongoing investigations by the EFCC, the nation's anti-graft agency. Similarly, cases involving Abubakar Malami, Buhari's justice minster, which have been rumored in hushed tone may become louder as the confrontation between the ADC and APC hots up. The EFCC, which has been put to sleep by Tinubu's body language, which does not seem to be interested in fighting corruption, may be woken up by this fight. The fight promises a rough battle between two groups of titans. It may also be the storm many Nigerians have been waiting for, a storm that may wipe off a generation of thieving politicians and bring in a generation of principled politicians. The ADC is yet to answer but definitely it must be compiling what it knows about APC members, too. It would not be corruption fighting back as past governments won't to say, but it would be corruption fighting corruption, a sword of brother against brother; a mutual destruction of the utterly corrupt in Nigeria.

Tunde Akande is both a journalist and pastor. He earned a Master's degree in Mass Communication from the University of Lagos