What's at stake as India-Pakistan tensions rise in Kashmir
Kashmir’s strategic importance and an ongoing conflict between Pakistan and India make it a volatile flashpoint with global stakes.
Few regions on earth are as densely militarized and as persistently volatile as Kashmir. Cradled in the Himalayas and bordered by three nuclear powers in India, Pakistan and China, the contested territory has long been a crucible of regional rivalries and unresolved territorial ambitions.
That volatility was on display with deadly force this week.
On Tuesday, militants attacked a group of tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir, killing at least 26 people and wounding dozens more in the worst assault on civilians in the territory in years. India has called the killings a terrorist attack.
Just days earlier, three militants and an Indian soldier were killed in a series of gun battles across the region — signs that tension on the ground remains dangerously high.
Why Kashmir matters
Spanning roughly 85,800 square miles (222,200 square kilometers), the Kashmir region is divided among India, Pakistan, and China — but claimed in full by both India and Pakistan. The region is home to roughly 20 million people — with an estimated 14.5 million living in India-administered territory, about 6 million in Pakistan-administered territory, and less than a few thousand in China-administered territory — and sits at a confluence of critical strategic, economic, and religious interests.
The modern history of Kashmir's conflict dates back to 1947, when British India was partitioned into Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan. What today constitutes the Indian union territory of Jammu and Kashmir — part of the wider region of Kashmir — was at the time ruled by the Hindu maharaja Hari Singh, who initially declined to join either country.
That changed after Pakistani guerrilla fighters attempted to seize the region and topple him. The result was the first India-Pakistan war, as the maharaja sought India's help to ward off the invaders and in return acceded his princely state to New Delhi — reinforcing a de-facto division of Kashmir that still holds.
Today, India controls the most populous portion of the region, which includes the Kashmir Valley, Jammu and Ladakh. Pakistan holds parts of northern Kashmir, including Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and Gilgit-Baltistan. China, meanwhile, administers the sparsely populated Aksai Chin region in the northeast, which India also lays claim to, and Shaksgam Valley, where Indian does not acknowledge Chinese control.
Pakistan’s claim to Kashmir is rooted, among other things, in the assertion that the region, with its Muslim majority, should have become part of Pakistan at the time of partition. India, in contrast, maintains that the 1947 Instrument of Accession signed by Hari Singh makes India's claim to the territory legitimate and final. But legal scholars dispute this, and call the validity of a document signed under duress into question.
The disagreement has fueled multiple wars, insurgencies and decades of diplomatic hostility.
The third claimant: China
Though India and Pakistan dominate the Kashmir narrative, China also holds a strategic piece of the puzzle. In the northeastern part of the region, Shaksgam Valley and Aksai Chin are administered by China but claimed by India. While Shaksgam Valley is barely inhabited due to its harsh terrain, the area of Aksai Chin is crucial for Beijing’s overland connectivity between Tibet and the western region of Xinjiang.
China established control over Aksai Chin in the 1950s by constructing a strategic highway linking Xinjiang and Tibet, a route that ran through territory claimed by India. India objected to the Chinese presence in the area, and tensions escalated into the brief but intense Sino-Indian War of 1962. After a brief conflict, China retained control of Aksai Chin and has administered it ever since. In recent years, Beijing has expanded its military presence along the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC) meant to demarcate the border between China and India, leading to frequent standoffs between troops on either side.
The region’s importance to China is not just strategic, but also economic. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a cornerstone of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, runs through Pakistan-administered Gilgit-Baltistan. That makes the stability of Kashmir a matter of financial, not just geopolitical, concern for Beijing.
A heavily fortified landscape
India is believed to maintain more than 750,000 troops across Jammu and Kashmir, primarily concentrated in the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley. Pakistan, for its part, stations as many as 120,000 security personell along the Line of Control (LoC) separating its administered regions from India, including specialized forces like the Mujahid Force, and 230,000 troops in the region.
Both sides accuse the other of exaggerating their respective deployments, and neither publishes precise figures. However, analysts agree that the region's military density, particularly in relation to its civilian population, rivals or exceeds that of the Korean Peninsula.
Insurgent groups add another layer of complexity. Armed insurgency in Indian-administered Kashmir, which began in the late 1980s, has been sustained by a mix of local discontent and external support. India accuses Pakistan of backing militant groups, an allegation Islamabad denies.
Over the decades, groups such as Hizbul Mujahideen, Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba have carried out attacks in the region.
Could this spark another crisis?
In response to the attack, India has taken a series of measures against Pakistan, including downgrading diplomatic ties, closing land and air borders, and suspending the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which governs the sharing of water from the Indus River system. Pakistan had previously warned that any interference with the treaty would be considered a potential "act of war."
Now, speculation about a potential military escalation is rising, echoing the tensions of 2019, when a suicide bombing in Pulwama killed 40 Indian paramilitary troops. India retaliated with airstrikes on Pakistan, pushing the two nations to the brink of war.
That same year, India revoked Article 370 of its constitution, stripping Jammu and Kashmir of its special autonomy. The move, condemned by Pakistan, sparked unrest in the region. Since then, tensions have remained high, though global attention has faded.
In this volatile region, where multiple conflicts have already been fought, the risks of another conflict are dangerously real.
Tensions flair as India scraps water treaty with Pakistan
The article was updated on April 25, 2025, with new figures on the territories and population that make up the wider Kashmir region, the numbers of troops deployed, and the contested nature of the 1947 accession agreement.
Edited by: Maren Sass
Monir Ghaedi Iranian author and reporter on current affairsMonirghaedi DW
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