Why El Rufai and his coalition will fail

El Rufai should know that he is not dealing with political neophytes of the hues of Umaru Yar’Adua and Goodluck Jonathan. El Rufai is up against a Rock of Gibraltar in President Bola Tinubu.

Nasir El Rufai is a very small-sized man, Obasanjo, his boss between 1999 and 2007 when Obasanjo was president and El Rufai was Minister for Federal Capital Territory, FCT, calls him "short man" because of his diminutive size. But what Nasir lost in size he gains in massive ego. According to El Rufai, Obasanjo feared only three members of his cabinet. El Rufai was one of those three. Others were Obi Ezekwesili, in charge of due process office and Okonjo Iweala, the finance minister. When they raised their hands to seek opportunity to speak, Obasanjo told Nasir, his heart always sank because he could not predict what they would say. The other side of El Rufai that is opposite of this big ego is expressed whenever he crouches before people. This may be Fulani way of expressing respect for elders but for El Rufai, he puts it to maximum advantage. He did it to Obasanjo several times and also to Muhammadu Buhari when he served as the Governor of Kaduna state. Now he is doing it to Atiku Abubakar, the serial presidential contender. Nasir El Rufai knows how to get advantage and how to get attention and how to get whatever he wants. Anybody who has read Rufai's "Accidental Public Servant" and how he took Atiku Abubakar, the deputy to Obasanjo in their two terms, to the cleaners at every turn always presenting him as very corrupt, will wonder at Nasir's genuflection to the same Atiku.

What does El Rufai want now? Why is he genuflecting again to Atiku and Buhari? And why is Atiku giving him audience? Apart from his genuflections, El Rufai is dominating the news currently. Apart from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu who must dominate the news because of his position as the president, nobody gets near El Rufai in news dominance. He also has a very large appearance on the social media, he has expert knowledge in manipulation of social media. A friend told me he opened a Tik Tok account because of a business he was involved in but the first thing that he was presented with was El Rufai asking him if he wanted to know anything about Nigeria. Because this friend did not like Rufai and his coalition effort, he told me he shut down the Tik Tok account immediately. He didn't want to see Rufai at all. This may be good for El Rufai to know that not many Nigerins like what he is doing, his large presence both on the mainstream media and the social media notwithstanding.

Again, what does El Rufai want? Why is he genuflecting? Just one thing, El Rufai is both a tribalist and a religious bigot who camouflage these evils and want to present himself as a lover of Nigeria. Nasir wants to present himself as a kingmaker in Nigeria. He can make and unmake any politician in Nigeria, however, big or influential. El Rufai wants to be feared in Nigeria’s political space. He is a small-sized man but he wants to be big. "I am not a politician, I can't go on the soapbox and wave my hands to campaign for elections. You go and win elections and bring me in to do the difficult job. This is what Ngozi, Ezekwesili and me are good at", he told an Arise television interviewer. But he campaigned for Kaduna State governorship for his two terms there, the interviewer reminded him. "Yes, but go to Kaduna and you will see that Buhari is the king there. He persuaded me to be governor there, we spoke three times on it. I rode on Buhari's wings to be governor in Kaduna State", he replied.

Nasir throws words around carelessly and without human feeling that borders on arrogance. "I sent Umaru Yar’Adua to the grave when we fought. I engaged him in a street fight. I despatched Goodluck Jonathan back to Otuoke when we decided to remove him as president in 2015." Umaru Yar'Adua was the president of Nigeria who took over from Obasanjo in 2007. He was manouevred into office largely by Olusegun Obasanjo who schemed to continue in office through a proxy, Yaradua, a man seen to be very weak. But Yar’Adua showed his strength when he rubbished Obasanjo's intention and took charge of his presidency even sending a subtle message to Obasanjo not to get to Aso Rock again, the seat of the president. Umaru took ill two years into his presidency after which he died from a terminal disease. So who dispatched Yar’Adua to the grave? El Rufai? El Rufai's claim to have sent Goodluck Jonathan packing from Aso Rock back to Otuoke, his village in Bayelsa State is also a ruse. El Rufai is taking credit for a grand scheme for something that was achieved by many in which El Rufai played a small part. The man who El Rufai is boasting to remove, Bola Tinubu in fact did most of the scheming with his money and contacts locally and foreign.

El Rufai may be pretending not to know the political dexterity of President Bola Tinubu, but he would do to listen well to Sule Lamido former governor of Jigawa State and the latest catch of Nasir's coalition who announced recently that he will join any coalition to upstage Tinubu. Sule Lamido warned that it was sitting president Muhammadu Buhari that Tinubu defeated in the 2023 presidential nomination of the APC. Buhari stood solidly against Tinubu but he lost to him. El Rufai should know that he is not dealing with political neophytes of the hues of Umaru Yar’Adua and Goodluck Jonathan. El Rufai is up against a Rock of Gibraltar in President Bola Tinubu. Chief Bisi Akande, former governor of Osun State about 86 years old wrote concerning Tinubu: "While other politicians think of their states and possibly geo-political zone, Tinubu has a more holistic view. As far as he is concerned, Nigeria is one constituency. He is always thinking ahead. He is a comprehensive political strategist who does not take anything for granted." This is the first reason why El Rufai's coalition will fail. While El Rufai is thinking in terms of what had been in Nigeria, political permutation based on tribes and religion and the northern hegemony dominated by his Fulani tribe, though a minority there, Tinubu is thinking about restructuring Nigeria and a north which is rejecting Fulani hegemony.

El Rufai's two-term reign in Kaduna was marred by political killings that many people, especially Christians in the south have attributed to Rufai's tribal and religious leanings. Their evidence is that since Rufai's successor, Uba Sani, planted by Rufai became governor of the state, there has not been one ethnic killing. When Uba Sani was asked what accounted for that miracle in a strife torn state, he said it was because he carried everybody along in the state and had run an all inclusive government. The plain meaning of that is the Nasir who he succeed did not run an inclusive government but favoured his Fulani people and his Islamic religion. Uba Sani and the legislature seem to have made false the large claim of El Rufai to integrity and honesty. The legislature is asking Nasir some questions about how he spent some money of the state. He is before the EFCC, the anti-corruption organization. Many are now asking if Rufai too is not a giant with feet of clay.

Tinubu's strategic thinking as Bisi Akande pointed out was largely responsible for the victory of Buhari in the 2015 elections and not El Rufai's permutation based on Buhari's constant garnering of 12 million votes in each of the three elections cycles he contested but lost. Tinubu saw ahead strategically and asked how former President Barack Obama, a minority black got elected in a white populated America. He travelled to America with his friend Bisi Akande to seek answers. Both found out it was tremendous use of media consultants and political consultants through their interactions with black politicians in America. Tinubu hired AKPD, an America media and political consultant. First AKPD told APC, that there was a political disconnect with the Igbo and the party and as such it was unlikely that APC will win an impending Anambra state election. The prediction came through and AKPD was invited to do the same nationally in the impending presidential election in which APC will feature Buhari. AKPD was not only to give the preference of Nigerians but also to advise it on appropriate message that Nigerians will like. Bola Tinubu was not totally new to this type of method, he had used the services of Professor Idowu Shobowale, an expert in precision journalism who had helped Tinubu with research bases to make decisions in the administration of Lagos. The advise of AKPD which included that Buhari who never wore suit should wear it to change the perception of Nigerians of him as dull and drab. When Buhari won the election in 2015 it was as a result of carefully planned research that told the preferences of Nigerians, north and south and not the archaic tribe and religious thinking. This is the strategy that dominate El Rufai's thinking and it is certainly going to fail. El Rufai is basing his hope on the 6 million votes that Atiku Abubakar got in the 2023 elections and a possible regional tribal addition in the south-south. Now a single move by Tinubu has removed both Delta and Akwa Ibom states out of the orbit of El Rufai’s coalition. Rivers State is most likely to join the train of defections as Siminalayi Fubara returns to his governship from which Tinubu removed him because of a fracas between him and his political godfather, Nyesom Wike. Tinubu was seen recently in a photograph standing between Fubara and Wike, he was said to have visited Tinubu on a peace mission.

When Rufai accompanied Atiku Abubakar on a condolence visit to Kiagbodo, the home town of late Chief Edwin Clark, the Ijaw leader, to commiserate with his family and the Ijaw people, it was more a political visit than any commiseration. El Rufai took the advantage of the visit contrary to culture to tell the Ijaw that a teaming of the Ijaw with the 6 million voters of Atiku Abubakar in the north will ensure them a place in federal government and a replacement of Bola Tinubu. True, Tinubu has not performed brilliantly in government, he has removed life from the poor, hand over the subsidy which is their only gain from government in Nigeria and hand over the money to the upper echelon of the nation; first to the governors and then to the contractors who distribute it to the upper class in bribes. Tinubu has refused to heed the call of the people to cut the cost of governance but this is not the worry of El Rufai. His worry is that a Fulani man, Atiku Abubakar must replace Tinubu who has refused to include El Rufai in his government. It is amazing that El Rufai boasts to have helped install Buhari who failed Nigeria disastrously in eight years and also played a role in helping Bola Tinubu to win in Kaduna, who is also seen to be making life difficult for the common man but giving the rich a pleasure ride into more riches, now wants to replace Tinubu with Atiku Abubakar who Nasir has branded as very corrupt. It is very disturbing that Rufai is seeking to replace corruption with another corruption. The plain meaning of that is that Rufai is only working for Rufai and not for the interest of a progressive Nigeria. Herein is the failure and collapse of the Rufai coalition. Already the coalition is running into murky waters. It is difficult to see how Peter Obi, the Igbo candidate and Atiku Abubakar, the Fulani will work together in a coalition. It was an inability that played into the hands of Tinubu and gave him the presidency in 2023. It is also what will give Tinubu a second berth in office as president of Nigeria come 2027.

Tunde Akande is both a journalist and pastor. He earned a Master's degree in Mass Communication from the University of Lagos